Navigate the Stock Market

Thursday, April 17, 2025

Housing ... Jobless Claims ... Philly Fed ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

NYSE is closed for Good Friday. Happy Easter and Happy Passover.

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Tariffs on generic drugs will cause companies to stop making them.” - Scott Gottlieb, Former FDA Commissioner.

“...Preservation of Capital is still #1... Judging from price action, we are witnessing a turn away from US assets.” – Goldman Sachs, Tony Pasquariello note, 14 April.

HOUSING STARTS (WSJ)
“Housing starts, a measure of home construction, dropped 11.4% in March from February, according to new Census Bureau data. That marked the steepest plunge in a year.” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/slumping-housing-starts-builder-earnings-signal-soft-new-home-market-bffb99ea

JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“Jobless claim applications fell by 9,000 to 215,000 for the week ending April 12, the Labor Department said Thursday.” Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-jobless-benefit-claims-fall-week-labor-market-120902480

PHILLY FED (Investing.com)
“The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index, a key indicator of the health of the manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia region, has posted a significant drop, according to the latest data. The actual number came in at -26.4, a stark contrast to the forecasted figure of 2.2... While the index can be subject to fluctuations, the severity of this drop is noteworthy. It serves as a stark reminder of the unpredictability of economic conditions” Story at...
https://m.ng.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/philadelphia-fed-manufacturing-index-plunges-signaling-worsening-conditions-93CH-1870706?ampMode=1

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 5283.
-VIX declined about 9% to 29.65.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.333% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
NONE

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:

Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved significantly, but remained bearish at -6 (6 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators) - the 10-dMA of the spread reversed higher – a bullish sign, but it has flipped a few times during this pullback.

The “Death Cross” remains on the S&P 500 – the 50-day moving average has dropped below its 200-dMA. Markets are already in bad shape so the “Death Cross” may not be important.

Markets continue to be confused by cross-currents. Today’s Philly Fed numbers were bad. United Health reported weak numbers, a warning for the health companies. Nvidia was hit hard by Trump exports restrictions (down another three percent today); but as I look at the indicators, they seems to suggests that markets want to go higher.

If I had to guess, I suspect that markets may go higher and then flatten out as they wait and see how the Tariffs fall out. The other option is that markets hold in this territory until tariff effects are better understood. If we can get a retest of the prior low, then we might have a better answer. For now, it’s wait and see.

BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral, leaning bearish, in a wait-and-see mode.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
Only IEFA has positive momentum; IEFA is #1; ITA is #2; XLU is #3.

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My current invested position is about 30% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Wednesday, April 16, 2025

FED Wait and See ... Retail Sales ... Industrial Production ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“Tariffs on generic drugs will cause companies to stop making them.” - Scott Gottlieb, Former FDA Commissioner

FED REMAINS WAIT AND SEE (Reuters)
“U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the Fed would wait for more data on the economy's direction before changing interest rates, and characterized recent market volatility as a logical processing of the Trump administration's dramatic shifts in tariff policy... "I do think we'll be moving away from those goals [2% inflation], probably for the balance of this year. Or at least not making any progress," due to the impact of tariffs that have proved larger, at least as announced, than even the most severe scenarios penciled into initial Fed planning estimates...” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-chair-powell-deliver-fresh-economic-view-tariffs-inject-uncertainty-2025-04-16/

RETAIL SALES (Newsweek)
“U.S. retail sales rose in March, as consumers flocked to buy goods ahead of the Trump administration's latest tariffs going into effect. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales increased by 1.4 percent on a monthly basis in March, up from February's 0.2 percent increase...” Story at...
https://www.newsweek.com/march-retail-sales-donald-trump-tariffs-2060407

FACTORY OUTPUT / INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Detroit News)
“US factory output rose at a modest pace [0.3%] in March, a month ahead of President Donald Trump’s announcement of more sweeping tariffs that pose at least a short-term risk for manufacturers... Overall industrial production fell for the first time in four months.” Story at...
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/2025/04/16/us-factory-output-increases-at-modest-pace-ahead-of-tariffs/83119590007/

CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 0.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 442.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 2.2% to 5275.
-VIX rose about 8% to 30.12.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.311% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
NONE

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 18 gave Bear-signs and 5 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators fell to a bearish at -13 (13 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators) - the 10-dMA of the spread reversed down – a bearish sign.

Not only did the spread turn a lot more bearish, the 10-dMA of the spread reversed down; the bulls can’t like that.

“...Preservation of Capital is still #1... Judging from price action, we are witnessing a turn away from US assets.” – Goldman Sachs, Tony Pasquariello note, 14 April.

Not that it means much, but the “Death Cross” remains on the S&P 500 – the 50-day moving average has dropped below its 200-dMA. This may create more selling? I don’t know; markets are already in bad shape so the “Death Cross” may not be important.

BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral, leaning bearish, in a wait-and-see mode.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
Only IEFA has positive momentum; IEFA is #1; ITA is #2; XLU is #3.

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Tuesday, April 15, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

“A conservative, pro-business nonprofit group is now taking President Donald Trump's administration to court, alleging that he is stepping outside the bounds of his authority to set new tariff rates. The Daily Beast reported Monday that the libertarian-leaning Liberty Justice Center (LJC) is representing five small business owners in a lawsuit challenging Trump's use of emergency powers to bypass Congress and unilaterally impose tariffs on most of the world.” Story at...
'Likely to do severe damage': Conservative group sues Trump for 'unprecedented power grab'

RADIO ADDRESS TO THE NATION ON FREE AND FAIR TRADE (Reagan Library)
“...[The] message of free trade is one I conveyed to Canada's leaders a few weeks ago, and it was warmly received there. Indeed, throughout the world there's a growing realization that the way to prosperity for all nations is rejecting protectionist legislation and promoting fair and free competition. Now, there are sound historical reasons for this. For those of us who lived through the Great Depression, the memory of the suffering it caused is deep and searing. And today many economic analysts and historians argue that high tariff legislation passed back in that period called the Smoot-Hawley tariff greatly deepened the depression and prevented economic recovery.
You see, at first, when someone says, ``Let's impose tariffs on foreign imports,'' it looks like they're doing the patriotic thing by protecting American products and jobs. And sometimes for a short while it works -- but only for a short time. What eventually occurs is: First, homegrown industries start relying on government protection in the form of high tariffs. They stop competing and stop making the innovative management and technological changes they need to succeed in world markets. And then, while all this is going on, something even worse occurs. High tariffs inevitably lead to retaliation by foreign countries and the triggering of fierce trade wars. The result is more and more tariffs, higher and higher trade barriers, and less and less competition. So, soon, because of the prices made artificially high by tariffs that subsidize inefficiency and poor management, people stop buying. Then the worst happens: Markets shrink and collapse; businesses and industries shut down; and millions of people lose their jobs.” – President Ronald Reagan, 25 April 1987. Full speech at...
https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/archives/speech/radio-address-nation-free-and-fair-trade-4

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 5397.
-VIX declined about 2% to 30.12.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.325% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
NONE

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
I don’t have anything smart to say. Indicators are improving as investors warm to the markets. I should be following the indicators, but I don’t need to take risk. With Trump, we have no real clue what is coming next, so why gamble?

“...Preservation of Capital is still #1... Judging from price action, we are witnessing a turn away from US assets.” – Goldman Sachs, Tony Pasquariello note, 14 April.

Not that it means much, but yesterday there was a Death Cross” on the S&P 500 – the 50-day moving average has dropped below its 200-dMA. This may create more selling? I don’t know; markets are already in bad shape so the “Death Cross” may not be important.

Sorry, but I don’t feel very helpful at this point. The S&P 500 has not broken above its upper trend line and certainly not decisively above it. That’s my line in the sand as a buy-signal.

BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral, leaning bearish, in a wait-and-see mode.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
All of the ETFs I track are below their 120-dMA so the chart is blowing up. None have positive momentum, but IEFA is #1; ITA is #2; XLU is #3.

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, April 14, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"There is a special place in HELL for the people who are willing to argue to the Supreme Court that the man they MISTAKENLY sent to an El Salvador prison should stay there.” – Representative Eric Swalwell, Democrat, California.
My cmt: Apparently the Supreme Court agrees. They voted 9-0 against Trump’s Homeland Security.

"I [Donald Trump] was watching it. But if you look at it now, it’s beautiful.” That beautiful market, which suffered distress as yields were whipsawed earlier in the week, may still be in trouble, along with the president’s continuing tariff plans. The bond market’s reaction to the tariffs has alarmed investors and sparked fears of an incipient financial crisis as the tariffs went into effect. The immediate crisis may have eased, but with long-term Treasury yields still elevated, the problems that forced the administration to alter its plans on Wednesday could easily recur if the White House keeps moving forward with tariffs.” Story at
The U.S. Came Close to Financial Disaster This Week—and Could Come Close Again
My cmt: This is the real reason that Trump postponed the Tariffs for 90-days. It may explain why the stock markets have been trying to recover – investors suggest that Trump won’t or can’t go thru with the full Tariff plan. What bothers me is that Tariffs on China alone may do serious damage to the economy so uncertainty remains. Inquiring minds want to know...how this will end.

TRUMP WANTS OT BE IMPEACHED AGAIN (?) (WSJ)
“This week the system worked. Donald Trump blinked. The unwinding is still just beginning. It will be painful and tumultuous. A grief-filled fight lies ahead over whether his trade actions have even been legal and constitutional. Many slips between cup and lip are to be expected. China and the U.S. are rushing toward an unplanned total stoppage of trade. The bond market is signaling a potentially dangerous combustion with America’s unaddressed fiscal-sustainability challenge... A future Trump impeachment seemed all but guaranteed by last Wednesday morning. It seems only slightly less likely now.” Holman Jenkins, WSJ. Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-wants-to-be-impeached-again-6f4ea931?mod=opinion_lead_pos8

GUNDLACH’S WARNING (The Street)
"Halfway through fiscal year 2025, the U.S. Budget deficit increased by $1.3 trillion. So we are up to a $2.6 trillion annual rate. That rounds up to an incredible 9% of GDP," wrote Gundlach in a post on "X." [on 10 April 2025] The soaring budget deficit means we rely heavily on foreign Treasury bond buyers to finance (and refinance) our spending. Foreign buyers own 30% of Treasuries, according to Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Group. Given our hefty deficit, the appetite to own Treasuries could weaken amid the ongoing trade war. We may already be feeling some shockwaves. "The 30-year US Treasury yield is going vertical," wrote Gundlach...
... In a CNBC interview on April 7, "The odds favor a recession at this point. It's kind of hard to see how we avoid it... The market was ridiculously overvalued going into 2025."
Gundlach thinks the S&P 500 could see 4,500. It's currently 5,314.” Story at...
Billionaire Jeffrey Gundlach sends blunt warning on stocks, bonds

HERES THE 20-YEAR TREASURY BOND CHART (Ciovacco Capital)

“...Yes, the [bond] market does appear to be concerned about the ballooning US budget deficit.” - Chris Ciovacco, Ciovacco Capital Management. Video presentation at...
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_ywfvIR2JrnMuZt33y7QYQ
My cmt: Prices fall as yields rise. For years many economists have stated that the Budget Deficit makes no difference. We now see that budget deficits are affecting capital markets. Unless budget deficits are reigned in, we could be looking at very serious problems (higher interest rates; lower stock prices) in the future.

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 5406.
-VIX declined about 18% to 30.89.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.384% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
NONE

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
“...Preservation of Capital is still #1... Judging from price action, we are witnessing a turn away from US assets.” – Goldman Sachs, Tony Pasquariello note.

That may be, but indicators continue to improve. The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved, but remained bearish at -6 (6 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators) - the 10-dMA of the spread reversed upward – a bullish sign.

Still, this is the toughest market I’ve ever seen when it comes to timing buy or sell moves. The indicators suggest buying, but the biggest factor in the market is Donald Trump. His moves are unpredictable and the impacts are extreme.

Sentiment is Bullish because bearish bets are very high, at least in the Rydex/Guggenheim long-short funds that I track.

Checking the chart, the Index has retraced about half of its decline from the bounce high of 5777 (25 March) and the low of 4983. That may end this bounce. The weak afternoon action today supports that idea.

I still think it is likely that the prior lows will be retested, but we need to keep an open mind that it is also possible there will not be a retest of the low. I’m just watching the charts.

BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral, leaning bearish, in a wait-and-see mode.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
All of the ETFs I track are below their 120-dMA the chart is blowing up. None have positive momentum, but IEFA is #1; ITA is #2; XLU is #3.

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Friday, April 11, 2025

PPI ... Michigan Sentiment ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved, but remained bearish at -9 (9 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators) - the 10-dMA of the spread reversed upward – a bullish sign.

We have seen other bullish signs, especially the 90% up-volume on Wednesday. It suggests the bottom may be in for the correction. I think it is, but it would be very unusual for a correction as deep (and long) as this one to move higher without testing the 4983 low we saw Tuesday. I can think of only one correction this deep that did not retest the low - the Coronavirus, 34% correction/bear-market in 2020. Like the ongoing Trump-Tariff correction, the Coron-virus pullback was characterized by unknowns. As reported by Forbes, shortly before the corona-virus bottom, “Congress and the Fed stepped in, interest rates were cut to near zero and a $2.3 trillion fiscal rescue package was launched, providing life support to markets, businesses, households and local governments.” This time it was Donald Trump who stemmed the tide of the stock market decline by pausing the Tariffs. So in both cases, outside Government forces stepped in to stop the correction.

Is that similarity enough to suggest there will be no retest of the prior low? Perhaps. I’ll be watching the charts. A move above the top trend line would suggest the answer is, “Yes.”

Still, there are worrisome bear signs. Most Breadth measures remain stubbornly to the bear side. The down-sloping chart of the S&P 500 is not currently bullish and the 50-indicator ensemble is still in bear territory.

I still think it is likely that the prior lows will be retested, but we need to keep an open mind that it is also possible there will not be a retest of the low.

BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral, leaning bearish, in a wait-and-see mode. I’ll be bullish when there is a resolution to the crisis or technical indicators give a buy-signal.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
All of the ETFs I track are below their 120-dMA the chart is blowing up. None have positive momentum, but IEFA is #1, ITA is #2.

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, April 10, 2025

Jobless Claims ... CPI ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved, but remained bearish at -12 (12 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators) - the 10-dMA of the spread continued down – another bearish sign.

How many articles/pundits said the 9.5% rise in the S&P 500 Wednesday was historic? It was just 5-years ago when the S&P 500 rose 9.3% on 13 March. It fell 12% the next day and rose 6% the day after.

The Tariff announcement pushed stocks higher yesterday, but there were also technical issues. Big moves in the market happen when the VIX is very high. It’s called volatility. There’s another factor in play, too.

Short sellers borrow stocks and then sell them. When the stock price falls, they can buy the stock back at the lower price, return the borrowed stock, and pocket the difference. When the stock price goes up, they are losing money and they can lose an unlimited amount if the price keeps going up. To exit the position, they must buy the stock to return the borrowed shares. There were a lot of short sellers who were forced to buy their shares back yesterday, and that was another driver of the big up-day.

Today we are left with the question: Did we see a return to weakness today, or simply a one-day reversion due to yesterday’s huge up-day? I don’t know. I do suspect that either way, there is likely to be a decline to the prior lows so the price can be tested.

BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral, leaning bearish, in a wait-and-see mode. I’ll be bullish when there is a resolution to the crisis or technical indicators give a buy-signal.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
All of the ETFs I track are below their 120-dMA the chart is blowing up. None have positive momentum, but ITA is #1.

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, April 9, 2025

Wholesale Sales ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

US COAL PRODUCTION DOWN BY MORE THAN HALF IN 15-YEARS (EIA)
“In 2023, the United States produced 578 million short tons (MMst) of coal, or less than half of the amount produced in 2008 when U.S. coal production peaked, according to our most recent Annual Coal Report. The production decline is spread almost evenly across each type of coal and continued in 2024. Rising mining costs, increasingly stringent environmental regulations, and competition from other sources of electric power generation have contributed to domestic coal production declines.” Report at...
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64924
My cmt: China’s output has increased by 55% to 4.66 billion tons over the same time frame. If environmentalists wanted to slow Global Warming, wouldn’t they boycott Chinese goods? It makes me suspect that much of the environmental movement is a left-wing ideology designed to damage the U.S. Government, not save the planet.

"Investors should not try to ‘catch a falling knife...This is an epic economic and market event similar to 1971 and the end of the gold standard except with immediate negative consequences...Trump can’t back down anytime soon...He’s too macho for that.” – Bill Gross.

“I think probably [a recession is] s a likely outcome, because markets, I mean, when you see a 2,000-point decline [in the Dow Jones Industrial Average], it sort of feeds on itself, doesn’t it...It makes you feel like you’re losing money in your 401(k), you’re losing money in your pension. You’ve got to cut back.” – Jamie Dimon on Fox Business, “Mornings With Maria” show.

WHOLESALE SALES (RTT News)
“Wholesale inventories in the U.S. increased in line with economist estimates in the month of February, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday... Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said wholesale sales surged by 2.4 percent in February after slumping by 0.9 percent in January.” Story at...
https://www.rttnews.com/3527733/u-s-wholesale-inventories-rise-in-line-with-estimates-in-february.aspx?type=ts

CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 442.3 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

TRUMP ANNOUNCES 90-DAY TARIFF PAUSE (CNBC)
“President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced a 90-day pause on the full effect of his new tariffs for at least some countries. Trump in a social media post also said that he “substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately.” Trump additional said he was raising the tariffs imposed on imports from China to 125% “effective immediately...” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/09/trump-announces-90-day-tariff-pause-for-at-least-some-countries.html
My cmt: China remains “the biggest problem” according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaking at a press conference at 1:40 Wednesday. Bessent said 90-days will allow for negotiations with a number of country and Trump wants to be personally involved.

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 jumped about 9.5% higher to 5457.
-VIX fell about 19% to 33.62.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.328% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
NONE

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 22 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved, but remained bearish at -15 (15 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators) - the 10-dMA of the spread continued down – another bearish sign. The 50-indicator ensemble is not too helpful on a major reversal like today.

The key indicator today is the high-up volume indicator. 98% of volume on the NYSE was up-volume with strong momentum at the close. From Lowry Research: "Thus, our 69-year record shows that declines containing two or more 90% Downside Days usually persist, on a trend basis, until investors eventually come rushing back in to snap up what they perceive to be the bargains of the decade and, in the process, produce a 90% Upside Day." - Identifying Bear Market Bottoms. While this decline did not have two, 90% down-volume days, I suspect the bottom is in, given the 90% up-volume reversal we saw today.

Still, I am not inclined to chase the rally until I see a little more confirmation. As we know, big up-days are usually followed by down days (60% of the time); however this time, we may see FOMO (fear of missing out) buying tomorrow. But to the point, I am suspicious that while many countries are willing to negotiate, some of the Trump-team demands are foolishly off-the-mark.

For example, Germany’s Value Added Tax (VAT) has been targeted by Trump. What Trump misses is that Germany’s VAT applies to products made in Germany too, not just imports. There is zero chance that Germany will drop the VAT on imports.

In most cases, Trump officials are talking about trade deficits not trade barriers, such as Tariffs. As noted by the WSJ, “Trying to eliminate trade deficits is a far more complicated and disruptive undertaking, as the global selloff in financial markets shows.” South Korea is a good example. South Korea has no tariff on U.S. imports, yet Trump hit them with a 25% tariff. They can come to the negotiating table, but what can they offer? Trade deficits are not always bad.

The WSJ wrote, “Many economists try to explain the need to run trade deficits with some countries with the following analogy: Most of us gladly maintain a trade deficit with our local supermarkets. We don’t sell them our labor in return, but we still buy products there because we need them and we know it is more efficient compared to us wasting our time trying to grow all our own products.”

To conclude the tariff discussion, while investors decided that the crisis is over, that may not be the case at all. We could see more weakness in markets.

BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral in a wait-and-see mode. I’ll be bullish when there is a resolution to the crisis or technical indicators give a buy-signal.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
All of the ETFs I track are below their 120-dMA the chart is blowing up. None have positive momentum, but Utilities (XLU) are #1.

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)