NAVIGATE THE STOCK MARKET FOCUSES ON:
(1) Daily momentum analysis of the DOW 30 stocks and 15 ETFs across various market sectors.
(2) Stock Market commentary and analysis.
(3) Buy/Sell signals for major market turns.
(((The blog is for information only. You assume all risk of its use; we don’t warrant the accuracy of our content. You must do your own due diligence.)))
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire. “Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund. "Investors should not try to ‘catch a falling
knife...This is an epic economic and market event similar to 1971 and the end
of the gold standard except with immediate negative consequences...Trump can’t
back down anytime soon...He’s too macho for that.” – Bill Gross. “I think probably [a recession is] a likely outcome,
because markets, I mean, when you see a 2,000-point decline [in the Dow Jones
Industrial Average], it sort of feeds on itself, doesn’t it...It makes you feel
like you’re losing money in your 401(k), you’re losing money in your pension.
You’ve got to cut back.” – Jamie Dimon on Fox Business, “Mornings With Maria”
show. JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News) “Slightly more Americans filed for unemployment benefits
last week, but the labor market remains broadly healthy despite an ongoing
trade war. Jobless claim filings inched up by 4,000 to 223,000 for
the week ending April 5...” Story at... https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-091236abb4dae355e2c05918cc2b6805 CPI (CNBC) “Consumer price inflation eased more than expected in
March as President Donald
Trump prepared to launch tariffs...The consumer
price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the U.S.
economy, fell a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in March, putting the 12-month
inflation rate at 2.4%...” Story At... https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/10/inflation-rate-eases-to-2point4percent-in-march-lower-than-expected.html My cmt: This was the first time prices have fallen in
years. MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY -Thursday the S&P 500 fell about 3.5% to 5268. -VIX rose about 21% to 40.72. -The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.425%
(compared to about this time prior market day). MY TRADING POSITIONS: NONE CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS: Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 19 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT The daily, bull-bear spread
of 50-indicators improved, but remained bearish at -12 (12 more Bear indicators
than Bull indicators) - the 10-dMA of the spread continued down –
another bearish sign. How many articles/pundits said the 9.5% rise in the
S&P 500 Wednesday was historic? It was just 5-years ago when the S&P
500 rose 9.3% on 13 March. It fell 12% the next day and rose 6% the day after. The Tariff announcement
pushed stocks higher yesterday, but there were also technical issues. Big moves
in the market happen when the VIX is very high. It’s called volatility. There’s
another factor in play, too. Short sellers borrow stocks and then sell them. When the
stock price falls, they can buy the stock back at the lower price, return the
borrowed stock, and pocket the difference.When the stock price goes up, they are losing money and they can lose an
unlimited amount if the price keeps going up. To exit the position, they must
buy the stock to return the borrowed shares. There were a lot of short sellers
who were forced to buy their shares back yesterday, and that was another driver
of the big up-day. Today we are left with the question: Did we see a return
to weakness today, or simply a one-day reversion due to yesterday’s huge
up-day? I don’t know. I do suspect that either way, there is likely to be a
decline to the prior lows so the price can be tested. BOTTOM LINE I am neutral, leaning bearish, in a wait-and-see mode.
I’ll be bullish when there is a resolution to the crisis or technical
indicators give a buy-signal. ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows: All of the ETFs I track are below their 120-dMA the chart
is blowing up. None have positive momentum, but ITA is #1. DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 30% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in
stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am
confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market
position.) I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
