When
I look at some of the data I keep, specifically volume/price charts, it looks
like we may see some sort of top in the month or months ahead. That’s not a call that we can trade so we’ll
need to see how it plays out. I am just
putting out a caution flag. In the mean
time, I’ll be looking at the daily output of the Navigate the Stock Market numerical
model to see if we get a sell.
“Despite
the "lost decade" since the extreme valuations of 2000, valuations
are now presently at about the same level from which prior secular bear markets
have just started. There is no basis to expect a secular bull until we observe the valuations from which they
have invariably started. Meanwhile, the recent cyclical bull market from the
2009 low has already run the same duration and slightly further than the
typical cyclical
bull in a secular
bear. .” - John P. Hussman, Ph.D.,31
May 2011 Weekly Market Comment, http://www.hussmanfunds.com, used with permission.
{Secular trend - a major 15 to 20-year trend. We are currently in a Bear that has lested more than 10-years.
Cyclical trend - the smaller up and down moves within the secular trend. We are currently in a cyclical Bull that has lasted roughly 2-yrs.}
The
NTSM analysis switched to BUY on 20 April.
Today there is not much change - all indicators are still neutral, so
the NTSM analysis is still HOLD.
