Sunday, May 8, 2011

Sentiment is reaching extreme values

Sentiment reached 66% Friday, so 2 out of every 3 traders using the Rydex leveraged funds we track are betting that we have up days ahead.  That is a big concern since Sentiment is an inverse indicator.  Strong bullish sentiment correlates to negative stock market returns…usually, but not always.  Sometimes the crowd is right for a awhile.    

The rest of the NTSM indicators are neutral so we are not yet ready to issue another sell.  We’ll just have to watch and wait.

I remain 100% long in stocks. (See the page How to Use the NTSM System).  That is way too aggressive for most people and I don’t recommend it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.