What’s wrong McFly….Chicken? (a stock market commentary, no doubt)

Sometimes I think we are playing chicken with the stock market.

 CNN/Money.com implied today that the lower gas prices we are now seeing are a bad thing and said, “Sagging economic expectations, after all, are the likeliest route to lower energy costs…There are plenty of signs economic growth is slowing. U.S. gasoline demand has fallen more than 2% over the past year, suggesting that high prices have already started to weigh on the economy…Uber-bear David Rosenberg cites recent declines in architectural billings, small business optimism, house price and manufacturing indexes.”    http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/05/20/do-falling-gas-prices-spell-recession/

 The were some bad retail numbers reported today…"When you see these retailers give numbers like this, you get concerned that the consumer is starting to give up some ground, with high oil prices and all," said Anthony Conroy, head trader at BNY ConvergEX. http://money.cnn.com/2011/05/20/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?iid=HP_LN

 As I previously noted, Robert Reich economist and former Labor Secretary in the Clinton Administration wrote several weeks ago, “Why aren't Americans being told the truth about the economy? We're heading in the direction of a double dip -- but you'd never know it if you listened to the upbeat messages coming out of Wall Street and Washington.”

 …and yet here we are, fully invested, expecting the stock market to make further gains.  It won’t last forever, but I don’t think we’ve made a top yet.  We’re right back at the lower trend line so we’ll get concerned if we go down further, because it may break the trend.  I still think we are in an upward trend.

 The Navigate the Stock Market analysis switched to BUY on 20 April and it is HOLD today                                

I remain 100% long in stocks in the Long-term portfolio and 80% long in the trading portfolio. (See the page How to Use the NTSM System).  That is way too aggressive for most people and I don’t recommend it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.