No point in analyzing this bull run

Volume analysis called a Buy 16 June on the Successful test of the prior 1257 correction low; the S&P has been straight up since then.

At this point all looks well and the NTSM analysis remains Hold.

I am currently 50% invested in stocks overall. That’s a conservative stock allocation simply reflecting the high degree of unresolved issues in the market place and my status as an old guy. You may want to be more heavily invested. 

What me worry?

Nothing to worry about today.  I am short on time and this will be a quick post. 

All of our indicators are improving as the market recovers from the double bottom test at the 200-d MA.  The market has moved steadily up since the successful test.

I remain 50% invested.  I plan to increase it some in July (I can't sooner because of trading rules in my 401k.)

Looking good, Billy Ray! Feeling good Louis...

I am pressed for time today so I won't be able to run the Navigate The Stock Market model.

The market looked good today so the NTSM model will either be Hold or Buy so there is no change in status - we bought last week at the low.

Consumer confidence numbers were low yesterday and the market went up.  Up on bad news is good.

I am currently 50% long in the long term portfolio and will have to wait until next month to increase the invested % due to 401k trading rules (in our 401k).

Solid upward movement today on the S&P 500

Volume was about 90% of the daily average for the month, so it was decent volume but a little low.  Volume on the NYSE was very low.  I don’t worry too much about low volume after a bottom, though, because it will take a while for investors to join the party.

NTSM is a HOLD today, but I feel good that we bought last week.  I think we go up from here, at least for the time being.  I am very cautious as we look further out; but for now, we look OK.

I was out running errands so I didn’t get a chance to add to the stock portfolio today; perhaps tomorrow, although it is possible we could see a big move up soon. 

Since volume analysis called a Buy 16 June on the Successful test of the prior 1257 correction low, I upped my investment position to 50% invested in stocks overall. 

Another test of the 1257 low

S&P 500 volume was low today (63% of the prior low) and market internals were good enough to call another successful test of the 1257 low.  That means we would issue a buy today.  We could still see some rough days next week though, because the volume on the entire NYSE was pretty high.  This happens occasionally when part of the stock market indicates a buy when the market as a whole does not. 

Normally, I’d interpret it as a chance to Buy the S&P 500 (where the successful test was) while it may take a few more days before the rest of the market comes around.

It isn’t so clear this time since the test on the NYSE looks like it failed on high volume since we went below the previous successful test on higher volume.

Bottom line: We have a bit of mixed signal so my inclination would be to wait for some more information before buying.  This discussion assumes you have some cash available for buying stocks.  (I don't since I am fully invested at 50% long, except for the trading portfolio where I could put some trading money long.)

One of the Rydex long funds we use for sentiment analysis had twice as much volume on the long side at the close today when compared to yesterday.  In other words, a lot of people think that today was a good day to buy.

The NTSM analysis was a HOLD today.

Since volume analysis called a Buy last week on the Successful test of the prior 1257 correction low, I upped my investment position to 50% invested in stocks overall.

I am tempted to go long in the trading portfolio, but I think I’ll wait for confirmation from NYSE volume.

Cautiously optimistic in the near term

But not everyone is as sanguine as me.  Here’s an excerpt from John Hussman’s (PhD) weekly comment at http://www.hussman.net/

“Despite the short-term oversold condition of the market, I should be clear that we are presently observing a combination of evidence that is typical of early bear markets - having some potential to be reversed, but with a generally dangerous record overall. This evidence includes the present combination of unfavorable valuations and unfavorable market action, developing concern from…our recession warning composite (which would be completed with a monthly S&P 500 close below about 1250 and another weak ISM report), a recent advance that has already passed the historical norms for extent and duration of cyclical bulls within secular bear…and the neutral intermediate-term, but hostile longer-term evidence we observed at the early May peak…. All of this presently holds us to a generally defensive investment stance.”

Regarding the possibility for Greek default, Mr. Hussman says later in his commentary that the possibility of Greek default is almost certain, but not yet.

Here’s what I think…

On 18 Feb the S&P 500 was 1343 which was 15% above the 200-day moving average. On 15 June the S&P was 1265 and 0.7% above the 20-d MA.  There is a lot more room for upside now than there was 4-months ago.

One market internal that I track is breadth.  As I measure it, breadth (number of advancing stocks vs. declining) looks good.  Except for VIX (which is a sell today), all other indicators are neutral. 

I agree with Mr. Hussman on an important point; if we drop to 1250 we are in trouble and will be looking for a Sell signal from the NTSM analysis.

NTMS is HOLD Today. 

Since volume analysis called a Buy last week on the Successful test of the prior 1257 correction low, I upped my investment position to 50% invested in stocks overall.  I’ll need to see some positive news before increasing the % invested in stocks any further.

Stock Market down? Big deal…

“NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks fell Wednesday after the Federal Reserve issued a dour assessment of the economy but gave no indication that additional stimulus measures are in the works.”

The financial press loves to pretend they know why the market went up or down.  I have no clue why the market went down today. (Actually, it is probably a technical reaction to yesterday's statistically significant move up.) I do know this; the market never goes the same direction every day.  The fact that the economy has slowed is very old news.  Bernanke is disappointed.  Who isn’t?  Sorry…I think today means nothing.  We’ll watch to see if there is any sustained selling.  Summer is here so we don’t expect too much from the market, but I think the odds favor more up than down.

NTMS is HOLD Today.  Unless we break the 1257 low, I see no need to be concerned.

Since volume analysis called a Buy last week on the Successful test of the prior 1257 correction low, I upped my investment position to 50% invested in stocks overall.  If the news gets better, I may up the invested % soon. 

How high can we get in the stock market?

We should get back to the recent high of 1364.  At that point we’ll just have to watch market action.  Greece issues seem to be put off for a while since the current Government survived a confidence vote.  Gas prices are falling quickly.

I think we are all clear and the rally should keep going, but not straight up, of course.

Everyone is blaming the Japanese earthquake for this slowdown, but we have to remember, that the Government spent a trillion dollars via the Recovery Act that was designed to stimulate the economy.  That money is gone and the projects that were started are done or close to done.  I think that is why we are seeing a slowdown now.  Throw in some high gas prices that suppress spending and here we are.

Our Navigate the Stock Market VIX indicator is down 18% since the successful test of the 200-d MA last Thursday. That is certainly good news.

NTMS is HOLD Today.

Since volume analysis called a Buy last week on the Successful test of the prior 1257 correction low, I upped my investment position to 50% invested in stocks overall.  If the news gets better, I may up the invested % soon. 

Stock market successful test

The successful test Buy signal will apply as long as we don’t close lower than 1257 on higher volume, because that would indicate the sellers are back.  A successful test is a technical indicator that just means selling pressure has eased enough to let the buyers move the market up.

It can always be overcome by bad news.  Bad news re-starts the selling. 

Today was interesting, because the news was all Greece and all bad, but we didn’t go down.  Bad news and the market went up?  I see that as bullish.  Another bullish point: an indicator of breadth that I review (% of stocks advancing) is looking positive and that should bring some up-action ahead.  How long will the S&P be bullish? Well, we never know that.  This may be slow advance, or even reverse to the downside.  Overall though, I am cautiously optimistic.

NTMS is HOLD Today.

Since volume analysis called a Buy last week on the Successful test of the prior 1257 correction low, I upped my investment position to 50% invested in stocks overall. 

Successful Test on the NYSE

I’ve been at the Boardwalk Arts Show in Virginia Beach where my wife is selling art this week.  Sales have been much slower than last year.

They have had router issues here at the hotel so I haven’t been able to post or check NYSE data to input into the model.  Today they got things up and running again.

While the Navigate the Stock Market system has been calling for a Sell the past couple of days, a review of the volume and market internals shows that we had a successful test of the 1257 low on Thursday.  That’s because the Thursday-close of the S&P 500 was within 1% of 1257 (the prior low); and the S&P volume was only 66% of the volume at the low; and market internals were improved.  Traders saw it too and we had an up day on Friday on relatively high volume (30% > the 20-day moving avg. vol.). 

A successful test means we should buy.

We also got within 1% of the 200-d MA.

The NTSM system moved to HOLD on Friday so we could have called a buy Friday, but I didn’t have the data…oh well.

We still have a the same choice though: (1) Buy now  or ; (2) wait for the NTSM analysis to give the buy signal.

Last year the Volume analysis called a Buy on a successful test about 5% above the final low of the correction.  The NTSM analysis called the bottom to the day.  Unfortunately, it is really only a guess which way of looking at the market will give us better results this time.

Normally, I would expect a big up day Monday or Tuesday.  News is still very unsettled though and that could dampen spirits.  Monday is certainly a trading Buy so I may go 50% in.  It is no longer the right climate to be 100% invested.  I suggest more caution and a more conservative investing approach.

NTMS is HOLD as of Friday, but volume analysis shows a Buy.

I plan to move some $ back in Monday, but it will be limited in scope.

Navigate the Stock Market analysis is Sell again....

I ran in to an Architect Friend of mine who has his own firm.  He said business is terrible – no one is building any new buildings.  He does work to for other firms too.  He said getting them to pay up is a big problem.  In short, if the economy is getting better, you wouldn’t know it from his experience.

The VIX rose another 7% Thursday.  We can’t be happy about that; it likely portends worsening market action ahead.  On the other hand, it is options expiration tomorrow and that sometimes skews results; and then too, VIX does not predict which way the market will go; just how much movement is expected.  On the whole though, rising VIX generally corresponds to falling Stock market.

As of Thursday’s close, the Sentiment indicator (based on the %-bulls of selected RYDEX long and short funds) was 47%.  That has come down some, but it is a long way from being a buy, or a sell for that matter.

Volume and VIX are both signaling sell now, so even if we test the previous low on low volume and improving market internals (one way to call a bottom), it would be a tough call to buy on the successful test.  I can’t call a bottom if the NTSM system is going to signal a sell the next day.

Price action has been getting worse as down-moves have been greater than up-moves recently and that indicator is close to turning negative too.

The NTSM model gave its first Sell signal of this cycle on Friday, 3 June at S&P 500 1300.  It has been either Hold or Sell since then.  It was SELL again today, Thursday. (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System”).

I am defensively positioned with only 30% invested in stocks. 

Will the 200-day Moving Average Save Us?

Tuesday I said I leaned toward the negative, implying that the good up day was simply a bounce in the bear.   Well we got the answer a lot sooner than anyone (except the shorts) wanted to see.  VIX was up 17% today.  There’s nothing good about that. 

Our VIX indicator switched negative today and it joins the Volume indicator (a variant of on-balance-volume) that has been negative for quite some time.

We’re less than 1% above the 200-day moving average at this point.  The previous closing low of Part 2 in our, apparently continuing, correction was 1257 and that’s now right on the 200-dMA.  We’ll watch the volume there to see if we have a low volume day that might indicate an end (at least for a while) of this downturn.  If we don’t stop there, we could easily fall another 6% and we might see some panic selling that could send things a lot lower. 

The only news we’ve had recently is Bad.  We won’t see new earnings numbers for 3-months so its employment that folks are watching, along with Greece and the farce in our own Congress.  There is a big fear that a Greece default will put huge pressure on banks in Europe and then you begin to wonder how much exposure the US Banks have to that mess.  In short – I am not optimistic in the near term.  Emotion is usually bad for decision making though, and that is why I rely on the numbers we follow.  Wednesday, the numbers got worse.

The Navigate the Stock Market analysis switched back to SELL today.  The NTSM model gave its first Sell signal of this cycle on Friday, 3 June at S&P 500 1300.  It has been either hold or sell since then.

I am defensively positioned with only 30% invested in stocks. 

Big up day; but not much change in our Stock Market model

We moved up on average volume on the NYSE today.  Have the traders decided that yesterday was a “buy” based on the 1266 mid day low?  Or was today a typical bounce in a bear pattern?  We’ll know in a couple of days.   I lean toward the negative, but I have been reading too many doomsday posts on the internet.  There’s a lot of worry over the debt…ours and Europe’s. 

I remember after we bailed out all of the lending institutions and real estate was tanking. The Government bailed out the institutions.  I was sure the country would be doomed by all the debt.  It was the 80’s and it was the savings and loan crisis…so now it’s déjà-vu all over again.  My point is simply that the crisis is real; it’s just hard to gage if the stock market will react now or a year from now.

This time it’s serious though because the debt is so much higher and sooner or later, it is likely to hurt the economy.

Not much change today.  The Navigate the Stock Market model gave a Sell signal a week ago, on Friday, 3 June.  It is HOLD today.  (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System”).

I am defensively positioned with only 30% invested in stocks. 

No bottom in the Stock Market yet

It looked like we might make a bottom today, but volume picked up because selling increased as the day wore on.  I was looking for a low volume retest of the 1257 low, but Volume was too high to declare victory.

Our VIX indicator is flirting with a sell signal and that would send us back to SELL over all.  VIX is the most reliable indicator I use. Volume is the 2^nd most reliable and it is already a sell.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bounce Tuesday.

The Navigate the Stock Market model gave a Sell signal a week ago, on Friday, 3 June.  It is HOLD today.  (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System”).

I am defensively positioned with only 30% invested in stocks. 

So much for the Stock Market bounce - down we went

We didn’t get much bounce yesterday.  We got a negative bounce today.

It has been 191-days since the Nasdaq daily low was less than or equal to the 200-day Exponential Moving Average.  This is the 2^nd longest streak in over a decade.  Only 2003-2004 was longer.  I suspect we have similar data on the S&P.  It’s been a heck of a run.

Volume was higher than the 20-day moving average today so I don’t see that today’s S&P reading of 1271 will be the low unless we have a retest of this level later.

The Navigate the Stock Market model gave a Sell signal a week ago, on Friday, 3 June.  It is HOLD today.  Only our Volume indicator is a Sell.  The other indicators are fair to midland.  VIX has been surprisingly benign.  Sentiment is high, but not a sell. Price action is a little higher to the downside, but it has been drifting without offering a definitive buy or sell for some time.

The S&P is now 1.4% above the 20-dMA.  In a normal Bull we could buy the 200-dMA with impunity.  Here we may need to be more cautious.

I think if this were THE TOP we would see VIX rising faster than it is, however, if we are NEAR the TOP this process may take a while to develop since it will depend on the news regarding the economy, debt, and earnings;  it will be a few months before those items become clearer.

NTSM analysis switched to SELL on Friday, 3 June; it was HOLD today.  (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System”).

I am defensively positioned with only 30% invested in stocks.

Stock Market Bounce

We got a bounce today. Frankly, I expected the first bounce to be higher.   Past history shows we could go up for a couple of days from here.

I think we will turn down again to test the 1257 level or perhaps we’ll make it back to the 200-day moving average that, as of today, is 1251.  We are currently 2.9% above the 200-day moving average.  This correction and sideways action has really improved that stat.   

One of the CNBC guys said that the S&P won’t get to the 200-day because everyone is watching that level and some will inevitably buy early.  Perhaps, but sooner or later the selling pressure has to dry up and the volumes will drop.  We should be able to look at the internals at the low and tell if we’ve bottomed.  The other possibility is that selling pressure picks up and we break these lower support levels.

All of my indicators in the Navigate the Stock Market system are neutral today so  nothing looks scary right now.  The Breadth of the S&P 500 has been falling since November as fewer and fewer stocks have been advancing (even as the S&P went up).   That’s not a good sign, but I haven’t studied the indicator enough to say when too much is too much.

NTSM analysis switched to SELL on Friday, 3 June; it was HOLD today.  (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System”).  I remain defensively positioned with only 30% invested in stocks.

The Wednesday Update of the Navigate the Stock Market System

SUMMARY OF NTSM INDICATORS:

As of today’s close, our 4-areas of market analysis present the following picture:

SENTIMENT:  Neutral.  As of yesterday’s close Sentiment is up to 57% Bulls.  That’s really amazingly high, given everything that is going on in the market; it shows a lot of complacency.   We would have had a Buy signal today, but there’s too much Bullishness out there.

PRICE: Neutral.   

VOLUME: Sell. Our variant of On Balance Volume is barely a sell. 

VIX: Neutral.  The daily value of VIX was up 4% today, but our long term indicator is up dramatically and may soon be a Sell.  VIX and Volume are the most reliable indicators.

NTSM analysis switched to SELL on Friday, 3 June; it remains HOLD today.  Yesterday’ comment is still true: “We are getting closer to a Buy is some areas of the NTSM analysis; other areas are deteriorating, so at this point, we could go either way.”  (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System”).

I am defensively positioned with 30% invested in stocks.

NOW, what follows is not a prediction – it’s just discussion.  In 2007 the TOP was easy to call.  We had made the old highs; couldn’t seem to go higher; and banks started failing. 

This time around it may not be so clear cut, but here’s a thought about risk. The recent high on the S&P was about 15% below the 1550 high.  So if you stay out of the market, you might miss 15% appreciation…but only if you stayed in and managed to then get out exactly at the top. (I’m assuming that with all the issues, we will not get past the old highs.)   On the other hand, the potential is that we will could see a 50% drop.  Hmmm…15% up or 50% down?  I’m recommending caution because we don’t know which way this thing will go, but one thing I am sure about -  the downside risk is now higher than the upside gain.

CNBC Stock Market Signal

From CNBC at:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43268572?__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cquote%7Ctext%7C&par=yahoo

In a live interview on CNBC’s Fast Money Strategic investor Dennis Gartman said, “I think the sell-off gets worse….Considering the market weakness and the string of negative economic data that's come out recently, “I think we’re looking at lower prices and a correction that could get reasonably more serious...”  When asked how serious, he replied, “Another 5-10% to the downside.  Let’s just say the trend is down and over the course of the next several weeks we’re probably going to be lower.”… 

…AND that was before the 1% selloff in the afternoon today.

When all of the CNBC analysts are talking about selling out, that is usually the time to buy.  We have not yet reached the CNBC buy signal.

NTSM analysis switched to Sell on Friday, 3 June; it switched to HOLD today.  We are getting closer to a Buy is some areas of the NTSM analysis; other areas are deteriorating, so at this point, we could go either way.  (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System”).

I am defensively positioned with 30% invested in stocks.

It’s Stock Market Déjà-vu all over again

Today’s NYSE volume was higher than Friday and we went down another 1% so we did not confirm a successful test of the prior low.  This analysis of lower lows works best on extreme lows, when the volume drops are also extreme, say in the neighborhood of 50%.  The news has trumped the lower-low technical analysis for the time being.

 At this point it looks like we will test the 16 March level of 1257.  You may remember I predicted we would test that level months ago, only to give up on that call when we made new highs at the end of April.  So it’s Deja-vu all over again.

 The economy has clearly slowed and is being called a “rough patch” by many of the talking heads on CNBC.

 Discussing the bad employment numbers, Ron Blackwell, Chief Economist of the AFL-CIO said, “No one knows on one month’s data…but this one is a real sign of fragility…this is what economic stagnation feels like.”

 John Hussman, PhD, wrote today that he does not think the data necessarily means we will move into recession.  “In recent weeks, and particularly in last week's ISM, employment claims and unemployment reports, we've observed a substantial weakening in measures of economic growth. At present, the evidence of economic deterioration is not severe - as I noted in 2000, 2007 and last summer, recession evidence is best obtained from a syndrome of conditions, including the behavior of the yield curve, credit spreads, stock prices, production, and employment growth. While all of these components have weakened, they have not deteriorated to the extent that has (always) accompanied the onset of recessions.” - John P. Hussman, Ph.D., 6 June 2011 Weekly Market Comment, http://www.hussmanfunds.com, used with permission.

 …but that doesn’t mean that the stock market won’t go down anyway.  The Navigate the Stock Market analysis moved to SELL Friday, and was SELL again today. 

 The Sell is based on 2-indicators (1) a statistic I keep on volume and price.  When the S&P drops a lot on high volume, it can generate a Sell in the Price/Volume indicator. This is really a panic indicator and triggers when something big happens – in this case – really bad employment numbers. (2) Our volume indicator also went negative and that is a variant of “on balance volume”.  A search of that term will give you an idea of that indicator.

Friday I sold to 30% invested in Stock which is a defensive position. 

I will be watching the 1257 support level.  We closed at 1286 today.  The next critical support level is only about 2% lower (1257).  If we break significantly below 1257 (say a couple %) we could see 1210 (a 50% retracement) or 1180 where there is strong support.

Numbers looked good at the close

In spite of the fact that bailed out of the market at mid-day, there was low overall volume on the NYSE.  Today’s low of 1300 was on a volume of 731M shares traded. On the 18^th of April when we made a low of 1305, we had volume of 1,042M shares traded.  So today we had about 20% less volume and the market internals improved too.  I would expect us to move up from here…so much for selling out on mid-day numbers rather than waiting for the close.  Don’t do this at home boys and girls…it’s why we’re supposed to wait for closing data.

We did windup with a Sell signal on the day, based on our volume indicator that has been showing more down volume than up and the “experimental” variance indicator.  Even then, it is a weak Sell signal.

I’d bet my money on the Low volume indicator that is actually a Buy.  Then again, we just had a failure of the low-volume day on 23 May when we were 30% below the 18 April low of 1305 and the S&P was 1317.  I had expected us to move up from there, but the employment news was awful.

Normally, those tests are on a “lower low” like today (1300 vs 1305) so the odds do favor up from here…BUT…

Right now, news trumps technical analysis.   By that I mean, it looks like we will be news driven for awhile.   Good news and we go up – bad news and it’s down.

I am cutting back Stock allocation to a defensive position

I sold stocks in the 401k to take me back to a 30% invested position.  This is defensive.  The NTSM system flashed a Sell (based on mid-day numbers) but only using an experimental indicator (Variance of price-volume action) that was triggered yesterday.  I need to backtest the Variance indicator over the past 5-years to get a better handle on the indicator. 

It is also possible that the day will end with better numbers and we would not have a Sell in the NTSM at the end of the day.

So...my reasoning is as much based on risk as anything else.  There is High risk now.  I am an old guy and I can't accept losing too much.  So if I am wrong, and I lose a little to the S&P (like the last NTSM Sell signal when we lost 2% to the S&P vs Buy and hold) I will accept that.  I prefer that scenario (making a little less and sleeping better) than the possibility of losing a lot.

Not much change in the indicators today.

We seem to be at point where the stock market is being driven by news.  The near term will be decided by the Government’s job report Friday.  A number of measures have shown a slowing economy: jobs, GDP, housing.  We can’t know whether the economy will slip into recession – nor can anyone, really.  One positive piece of news is that First quarter earnings were up almost 17% when compared to year-ago numbers.  That’s great, but the market looks ahead 6-9 months so the current economic data is more important than what happened last quarter.   

We made a low of 1317 on 23 May that was within 1% of the 18 April prior low, on lower volume, and that was the basis for our belief that the market would move up.  At this point we can only say things look unsettled, because we are down to 1313 on average volume that is not low enough for us to make much of a call either way.

 NTSM is HOLD today.  The Navigate the Stock Market analysis switched to BUY on 20 April and it is HOLD today  

I remain 100% long in stocks in the Long-term portfolio.  That is way too aggressive for most people and I don’t recommend it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.

The Wednesday Update of the Navigate the Stock Market System

Wow…when I said there was reason to be cautious in the month (or months) ahead, I didn’t expect problems the next day!

The ADP jobs data was abysmal today since it showed a gain of only 39,000 jobs from April to May.  Analysts had predicted 175,000 jobs. 

The House of Representatives played games with the National Debt limit yesterday; Republicans voted down the hike before today’s open of the market.

The ADP report shouldn’t be all that surprising – growth has slowed by a number of measures – so I think a lot of people got concerned about the Political action in the House.

Pick your poison…a little fear…some bad economic data, and today is what you get.

Technically, I am most concerned that the move down broke the trend line going back to last September.  It also now looks like the down-trend from the top (1364 on 29 April) is back in play.  Today’s big down move sets the bottom of the trend so we may get some bounce tomorrow, but it is not encouraging to see this kind of action.

If we continue down we’ll see a Sell signal from our numerical model in a couple of days, if that long.  Quite frequently there is some buying after this kind of move and we could see some more up days ahead.  As always, we’ll have to wait and see.

SUMMARY OF NTSM INDICATORS:

As of today’s close, our 4-areas of market analysis present the following picture:

SENTIMENT:  Neutral.  Sentiment is down to 51% Bulls as of today’s close.  

PRICE: Neutral. Today’s big move down sent the price indicator down, but it is not a sell yet.  

VOLUME: Neutral. I said last week that Volume has been more down than up and after today it is worse. 

VIX: Neutral.  VIX was up 18% today – not a good sign. 

NTSM is HOLD today.  The Navigate the Stock Market analysis switched to BUY on 20 April and it is HOLD today  
 
I remain 100% long in stocks in the Long-term portfolio.  That is way too aggressive for most people and I don’t recommend it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.

I sold all my trading positions this morning because yesterday’s big up move followed by a big move down was confusing.  I didn’t know at the time that today would be a HUGE down day.  I made a little on the ETF, but I lost a little on the Rydex fund (couldn’t get out until 1045AM) so I broke even overall on the trade.  Considering how we wound up for the day, I am happy to do that well.  I needed to reduce risk even though, statistically, we should bounce up from here a couple of %.