Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Big up day; but not much change in our Stock Market model


We moved up on average volume on the NYSE today.  Have the traders decided that yesterday was a “buy” based on the 1266 mid day low?  Or was today a typical bounce in a bear pattern?  We’ll know in a couple of days.   I lean toward the negative, but I have been reading too many doomsday posts on the internet.  There’s a lot of worry over the debt…ours and Europe’s. 

I remember after we bailed out all of the lending institutions and real estate was tanking. The Government bailed out the institutions.  I was sure the country would be doomed by all the debt.  It was the 80’s and it was the savings and loan crisis…so now it’s déjà-vu all over again.  My point is simply that the crisis is real; it’s just hard to gage if the stock market will react now or a year from now.

This time it’s serious though because the debt is so much higher and sooner or later, it is likely to hurt the economy.

Not much change today.  The Navigate the Stock Market model gave a Sell signal a week ago, on Friday, 3 June.  It is HOLD today.  (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System”).

I am defensively positioned with only 30% invested in stocks.