It
has been 191-days since the Nasdaq daily low was less than or equal to the
200-day Exponential Moving Average. This
is the 2nd longest streak in over a decade. Only 2003-2004 was longer. I suspect we have similar data on the
S&P. It’s been a heck of a run.
Volume
was higher than the 20-day moving average today so I don’t see that today’s
S&P reading of 1271 will be the low unless we have a retest of this level
later.
The
Navigate the Stock Market model gave a Sell signal a week ago, on Friday, 3
June. It is HOLD today. Only our Volume indicator is a Sell. The other indicators are fair to
midland. VIX has been surprisingly
benign. Sentiment is high, but not a
sell. Price action is a little higher to the downside, but it has been drifting
without offering a definitive buy or sell for some time.
The
S&P is now 1.4% above the 20-dMA. In
a normal Bull we could buy the 200-dMA with impunity. Here we may need to be more cautious.
I
think if this were THE TOP we would see VIX rising faster than it is, however,
if we are NEAR the TOP this process may take a while to develop since it will depend
on the news regarding the economy, debt, and earnings; it will be a few months before those items become
clearer.
NTSM
analysis switched to SELL on Friday, 3 June; it was HOLD today. (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System”).
I
am defensively positioned with only 30% invested in stocks.
