In
spite of the fact that bailed out of the market at mid-day, there was low
overall volume on the NYSE. Today’s low
of 1300 was on a volume of 731M shares traded. On the 18th of April
when we made a low of 1305, we had volume of 1,042M shares traded. So today we had about 20% less volume and the
market internals improved too. I would
expect us to move up from here…so much for selling out on mid-day numbers
rather than waiting for the close. Don’t
do this at home boys and girls…it’s why we’re supposed to wait for closing
data.
We
did windup with a Sell signal on the day, based on our volume indicator that
has been showing more down volume than up and the “experimental” variance
indicator. Even then, it is a weak Sell
signal.
I’d
bet my money on the Low volume indicator that is actually a Buy. Then again, we just had a failure of the low-volume
day on 23 May when we were 30% below the 18 April low of 1305 and the S&P
was 1317. I had expected us to move up
from there, but the employment news was awful.
Normally,
those tests are on a “lower low” like today (1300 vs 1305) so the odds do favor
up from here…BUT…
Right
now, news trumps technical analysis. By
that I mean, it looks like we will be news driven for awhile. Good
news and we go up – bad news and it’s down.
