We
seem to be at point where the stock market is being driven by news. The near term will be decided by the
Government’s job report Friday. A number
of measures have shown a slowing economy: jobs, GDP, housing. We can’t know whether the economy will slip
into recession – nor can anyone, really.
One positive piece of news is that First quarter earnings were up
almost 17% when compared to year-ago numbers.
That’s great, but the market looks ahead 6-9 months so the current
economic data is more important than what happened last quarter.
We
made a low of 1317 on 23 May that was within 1% of the 18 April prior low, on
lower volume, and that was the basis for our belief that the market would move
up. At this point we can only say things
look unsettled, because we are down to 1313 on average volume that is not low
enough for us to make much of a call either way.
NTSM
is HOLD today. The Navigate the Stock
Market analysis switched to BUY on 20 April and it is HOLD today
I
remain 100% long in stocks in the Long-term portfolio. That is way too aggressive for most people
and I don’t recommend it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.
