S&P
500 down 0.75% today.
We
had some more fallout from the Jobs data last Friday. We made out pretty well compared to
Europe. Some European exchanges were
down about 5% on Monday. Our markets
were closed due to Labor Day.
Today
we were down more than 2% at the open, but we clawed back for only a 3/4
percent loss – a moral victory.
Sam
Stovall at S&P said on CNBC today that it is important to take a
conservative stance regarding the market and invest in dividend paying
conservative stocks since “ a rising tide lifts all boats.” The risks are too high to ignore.
John
Hussman, PhD, said today in his weekly market comment that recession is almost
certain in the US; so is a Greek default. (http://www.hussmanfunds.com)
The 10-year bond hit an all time low
today, showing that many people are buying bonds. Typically that would indicate a “flight to
safety”. The bond market is sending us a
message that the stock market has ignored for quite some time.
Volatility
was up almost 10% to 37. That’s a high
number. Volatility is historically the
Navigate the Stock Market’s best indicator.
It turned to sell on 18 July and it has been consistently a sell for the
last 6-weeks. Our VIX indicator remains
Sell today.
Based
on preliminary numbers, the NTSM Sentiment indicator is Hold; Price indicator
is Hold; the Volume indicator is Buy. Overall,
the Navigate the Stock Market analysis remains HOLD again today.
I sold on the 27 July sell signal at S&P 500 1301 and I am
defensively positioned with only a small amount of my portfolio invested in
stocks. (Zero stocks in the 401k.) I upped
the short position to near 100% short in the trading portfolio.
(See
the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this
page).
