S&P
500 was up almost 3/4 percent Monday; VIX was also up slightly.
It’s
not unusual for them to head in the same direction for a day or two. If it persists, it will be a warning.
S&P
500 got within about 1-1/2 percent of the prior low (1119) during the day
Monday and then the front-running buyers could wait no longer and they started
buying. That means to me that
time-wise, we are probably not near a bottom.
The market will make a bottom when everyone is fed up with the market
and volume dries up. That is
capitulation - the buyers are gone and everyone who wanted to sell is already
out. Today’s volume on the S&P 500
was 108% of the 20-dMA; that’s not low volume.
Of
course, many may consider today a test of the bottom and buy without considering
volume so we could see some up days ahead.
We still need to SUCCESSFULLY test the 1119 level at some point in the future. Otherwise, we will break 1119 and head lower.
The
Navigate the Stock Market analysis is still HOLD.
I sold on the 27 July sell signal at S&P 500 1301 and I am
defensively positioned with only a small amount of my portfolio invested in
stocks. (Zero stocks in the 401k.) I am
near 100% short in the trading portfolio.
(See
the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this
page).
