I
love Dennis, but this bear market isn’t going away that soon. I would be amazed if it broke 1575 on the
S&P 500 in the next 5-years.
Full
story at http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20120113DeC_interview.html
WHAT
DOES HISTORY SAY?
Here’s
what I have said in the recent past…
9
Jan Blog Comment:
“In the 1966 Bear market, both peaks and troughs seemed to
cycle roughly every 4-years, so perhaps this year (2012) will fool all of the
pundits (including my previous commentary) and give us another down year as we
head down to a MAJOR bottom in 2013. The
last major trough was in 2009.”
<My
comment today: As I look at Greece and all of the debt issues in Europe (and
even our own), I think a significant drop from this year is VERY possible. History would support that move.>
7
Dec Blog Comment:
“11-years into the 1966 bear market the Dow made lows 25% below the high of the
1966 Bear market (high about 1000). The
Dow went on to make a run upward of 16% in the following year before falling in
another Bear cycle. If we go up 16% from
the 1099 low we are in the range of 1275-1300.
<
My comment today: We’re there now.>
7
Dec Blog Comment:
I think we’ll make 1290 by year-end and that’s up a little from my previous
guess.”
<
My comment today: I was only 6-days off on that guess>
3
Nov Blog Comment:
“Historically, the smallest increase in the next
Bull phase following a bear cycle was 29% in 1911-1912. That would carry us to about 1420…(but) the
high won’t be above 1550.”
<
My comment today: Seems reasonable..>
My point (perhaps pointless): My
thoughts are completely schizophrenic – we can go anywhere from here depending
on the Euro-debt crisis. Well, enough
rambling, let’s look at some news, the market and the NTSM system..
We’ve had good news from China (growth ahead of expectations;
good forward comments from Citi (they said the economy looks better); decent
earnings so far; it is hard to believe that we have any problems out there; but
then…
According to CNN/Money, a “…Fitch official told Reuters Tuesday,
"Greece is insolvent so it will default."- Full story at…
http://money.cnn.com/2012/01/17/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm
Just
check out yesterday’s blog for possible impacts; however, I don’t want to be a
fear monger here. Collectively the
market has put aside Europe for the time being.
The
S&P 500 was up over 1% today to 1308.
VIX fell almost 6% to 20.9.
Today
the NTSM analysis remained BUY.
I
bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct
NTSM buy signal. I remain 100% long in
the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use
the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page).
I
am 90% long in the trading portfolio. I
may take profits on the trade soon to cut some risk.
Just a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational folks. Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.
