Here’s a Beige Book summary from the Federal Reserve as
summarized by Bloomberg News:
“Contact reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts…suggest
ongoing improvement in economic conditions in recent months, with most
Districts highlighting more favorable conditions than identified in reports
from the late spring through early fall.”
Regarding
my comment yesterday that pre-announcements on earnings appeared problematic
this quarter, here’s a completely opposite view quoted by the Street.com:
Doug Cote, chief market strategist
with ING Investment Management said,
"Fourth-quarter earnings are on
track to achieve the highest level for the fourth quarter in the history of the
S&P 500," he added. "How can you be out of the market when
corporate profits are hitting an all-time record?" Full story at:
And
finally from MarketWatch (Washington), here’s the view of new Fed Governor
Esther George, that agrees with what John Hussman, PhD, has been saying for
some time: “The Federal Reserve may have pushed investors too far in search of
returns, leading to a "mispricing of risk," said Esther George, the
new president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, on Tuesday.”
(She) “…highlighted
one of (former Fed Governor) Hoenig's chief concerns: the soaring value of
farmland ...There may be other sectors experiencing similar conditions that may
not be obvious for years, George said. While the Fed's current policy settings
are designed to encourage risk-taking and stimulate much needed demand, on the
other hand, the mispricing of risk can lead to misallocation of capital and
weaker bank balance sheets…” Full story
at
A
real estate bubble caused by unnaturally low interest rates? That could never
happen…
Today
the NTSM analysis remains HOLD.
I
bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct
NTSM buy signal. I remain 100% long in
the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use
the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page).
I
am 90% long in the trading portfolio. I
may take profits on the trade soon to cut some risk. There are a ton of unknowns now.
Just
a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational
folks. Don’t do it unless you have a
high tolerance for risk.
