“U.S. economic growth regained speed in the first quarter, but not as much as expected…Gross domestic product expanded at 2.5 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said on Friday, after growth nearly stalled at 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter. ….Data ranging from employment to retail sales and manufacturing weakened substantially in March after robust gains in the first two months of the year. There are indications the weakness persisted into April.” Full story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100678290
ATA TRUCK TONANGE INCREASED 0.9% IN MARCH
The American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally
adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index gained 0.9% in March after
decreasing 0.7% in February….…Fitting with the expectation for solid gross domestic product growth in the first quarter, tonnage was strong in March and the quarter overall,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said. “At 3.9% year-over-year growth, the first quarter increase was the best since the final quarter 2011.
“Expect freight tonnage will slow in the months ahead as
the federal government sequester continues and households finish spending their
tax returns,” he said. “The good news for tonnage is housing starts are growing
and energy production is good – both of which generates heavy freight. However,
these two sectors alone won’t be enough to keep the overall index growing at a
3.9% clip in the second quarter.” Press
release from ATA at …
http://www.truckline.com/pages/article.aspx?id=1104%2F8e1c7279-ed27-4c03-b189-ceeee26bbb12
RECESSION?
No evidence of recession in the ATA report!
My own analysis for recession is to look at the Morgan
Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC) compared to the S&P 500. Over the longer term, the CYC is not keeping
up with the S&P 500 (on a percentage basis), but the CYC isn’t falling much
either so there is concern, but no recession predicted by investors.
15-YR MORTGAGES AT NEW LOW (CNN/Money)
“Mortgage rates continued to drop, with the 15-year
fixed-rate loan hitting a record low, according to a weekly report from
mortgage financier Freddie Mac.The 15-year fixed rate fell to 2.61% this week from 2.64%. The previous record low of 2.63% was set the week of Nov. 21, 2012.” Full story at…
http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/25/real_estate/mortgage-rate-record/index.html?iid=Lead
Mortgage rates are driven down by investors buying bonds,
usually in a desire for safety due to fear of the equity market. The bond market is suggesting that the stock
market may not be as healthy as it looks.
MARKET RECAP
Friday, the S&P 500 was down 0.2% to 1,582 (rounded). VIX was almost unchanged, down 0.1% to 13.61.
Friday, the S&P 500 was down 0.2% to 1,582 (rounded). VIX was almost unchanged, down 0.1% to 13.61.
NTSM
Friday, the NTSM analysis was again HOLD at the close. All indicators are now neutral.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500
-1540). My reasoning may be found at…http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2013/03/why-i-got-mostly-out-of-stock-market.html
I have no problems leaving 20% or 30% invested. If the market is cut in half (worst case) I’d
only lose 10%-15% of my investments. It
also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I will have some invested if the market
goes up. No system is perfect.
