“There is no doubt we are in the depths of a second global recession since the 2008 Great Recession, but amazingly the U.S seems to have skirted it (so far)...
“...the GDP-weighted bloc shows we have tipped into "mild recession" in Q4-2012. The "non-trivial" economies that are of concern at the moment are France (4% of world GDP), Germany (5.4%), Italy (3.2%), Spain (2.2%), UK (3.9%) and the U.S (25%) that appears on the brink.” - Dwaine Van Vuuren, posted at DShort.com. Full story at...
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Dwaine-van-Vuuren-130410-World-Recession.php
CRASH PREDICTION FROM MARTENSON
“Even though the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are
hovering at all-time highs, Chris Martenson, author of PeakProsperity.com and the “Crash
Course” Series, is forecasting a major market correction...Martenson predicts the
S&P could fall 40% to 60% to the 600-800 level by this fall. His last major
market call was in March 2008, before the financial crisis.” - Yahoo
Finance. Full story at...
I’ve posted
something similar before from Mr. Martenson and he is not alone. There are plenty of crash predictions
around. Problems in Europe, Japan, North
Korea, US debt, or rising interest rates are all candidates for a crash
trigger, but none are imminent now, and we don’t know if they ever will be.
MARKET RECAP
Wednesday, the S&P 500 finished up 1.2% to 1561 (rounded).
Wednesday, the S&P 500 finished up 1.2% to 1561 (rounded).
VIX fell about 4% to 12.36.
Today (Wednesday) had some earmarks of a top.
The price-volume action was “statistically significant” by my measures. 62% of the time, statistically significant
days are followed by a down day. I
thought I was pretty smart when I did the analysis to show this relationship. About a year later I saw this discussed on a
trader board and their analysis also showed the same 62% relationship - so much
for being smug. This is apparently
widely known. That may not sound like
great odds, but it’s not too far from 66% and that’s 2 to 1. Most gamblers would be pretty happy with odds
62% in their favor.
These big up-days also can sometimes signal a short-term top prior to a pullback. There are other clues too. Today, (Wednesday) the S&P 500 closed 9.9% above the
200-dMA at the top of the trend line; the 10-dMA of breadth remains in a
downtrend; sentiment remains high; and then there are the “worries”. So perhaps the top is near? I am tired of guessing.
NTSM
Wednesday, the NTSM analysis remained HOLD at the close.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500 -1540),
due to my risk tolerance rather than the numerical NTSM analysis. To put it bluntly, I currently have no
tolerance for risk. (If I were strictly
following the NTSM numbers, I'd still be heavily invested in stocks.) My
reasoning may be found at…http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2013/03/why-i-got-mostly-out-of-stock-market.html
