"The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment declined to 72.3 in April from 78.6 a month earlier. This month’s reading was lower than all 69 estimates in a Bloomberg survey…Consumers’ assessments of their financial situation deteriorated… 'If this weakness persists, then I think it will likely temper spending in coming months,' said Millan Mulraine, director of U.S. rates research at TD Securities USA LLC in New York.” Full story at…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-12/michigan-consumer-sentiment-declined-in-april-to-nine-month-low.html
CENTRAL BANKS FIXING THE DEFICIT – THRU INFLATION (SPIEGEL International
Online)
In an Interview…”Harvard economist Carmen Reinhart argues
governments are incapable of reducing their debts and that central banks are
now stepping up to resolve the crisis themselves. In the end, she argues,
everyday savers will pay the price...…SPIEGEL: So what should be done?
Reinhart: …You can pray for higher growth, but good luck! Historically it doesn't happen -- you seldom just grow yourself out of debt. You need a combination of austerity, so that you don't add further to the pile of debt, and higher inflation, which is effectively a subtle form of taxation …
SPIEGEL: … with the consequence that people are going to lose their savings?
Reinhart: No doubt, pensions are screwed.”
Interview at…
http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/interview-with-harvard-economist-carmen-reinhart-on-financial-repression-a-893213.html
STOCKS EXCEEDING THEIR 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE (200-dMA)
The percentage of stocks on the NYSE trading above their
200 day moving average (200-dMA) hit 80% Thursday (yesterday). That is an extreme overbought indication, but
it can remain elevated for some time. If
Breadth deteriorates from here, that would be a sell signal for many traders. I don’t use this in my system; but it is
widely known. The 10-dMA of percent
advancing (Breadth) remains in a slow decline.
If I reposted the chart it wouldn’t look much different than the one I
posted on 2 April. (See http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2013/04/great-caesars-ghost-jack-bogle-predicts.html)
MARKET RECAP
Friday, the S&P 500 finished down 0.3% to 1589 (rounded).
Friday, the S&P 500 finished down 0.3% to 1589 (rounded).
VIX fell about 1.5% to 12.06.
(There’s no fear in the options camp.)
NTSM
Friday, the NTSM analysis remained HOLD at the close.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500 -1540),
due to my risk tolerance rather than the numerical NTSM analysis. To put it bluntly, I currently have no
tolerance for risk. (If I were strictly
following the NTSM numbers, I'd still be heavily invested in stocks.) My
reasoning may be found at…http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2013/03/why-i-got-mostly-out-of-stock-market.html
