http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-24/another-wtf-chart
APPLE
Q2 margin was weaker than expected at 37.5% versus an
expected 38.5%. The particularly
troubling news was the future guidance: Q3 revenue was guided by the company at
$33.5-$35.5 billion and this was far below the estimated consensus value of
$38.4. ZeroHedge has a detailed analysis
of Apple earnings at… http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-23/aapl-beats-revenues-and-eps-guides-lower-boosts-dividend
Apple was up big for the day (Tuesday), but gave it all back after
the earnings announcement and was down in after- hours trading as it fell to
399. Apple’s forward P/E is now 8
according to Yahoo finance. If I wasn’t
negative on the overall market, I’d take a hard look at Apple. Who ever thought Apple would be a value play?
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS FAKE TWEET (The Tweet Crash)
Yesterday (Tuesday), the market fell 1% in seconds after a fake
tweet from the AP reported that there had been explosions at the White House. The news was quickly found to be false and
the markets quickly recovered. If you
looked at yesterday’s chart, you would have assumed it was some sort of mistake
in the computers. It was related to
computers – high frequency trading by computers. Here’s Rick Santelli’s take from CNBC.
“You've got to be kidding me where a fake tweet can have
that a kind of impact over the markets at
all. Yeah, it highlights how we're in many ways some of our markets are just,
you know, high-speed casinos…is it any surprise that [the] average guy on main
street looks at this and goes none of this for me, you people are all crazy.” CNBC Video at…
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000163788&play=1
Here’s more from Rick:
"...at the point yesterday around 1:00 eastern you looked at stocks, of course, you saw boom you
had one of these [pointing to a chart with a huge quick drop]. If you look at
the euro currency against the dollar you didn't see it. If you look at the British pound, the symbol
on the computers, you didn't see it. If you looked at the Aussie dollar you
didn't see it. Where you did see the
same pattern is any of the cross trades. whether the euro yen, the pound yen,
anything yen, you had the exact same pattern.”
“Computerized trading takes place like boom. You already
missed half of it just in the snap of a finger. So obviously there was no
thought going into this. It's programmed in.”
RICK SANTELLI’S CONCLUSION
“The yen is now programmed into the equity algorithms on
the high speed computers and that is very important. We talked about the first
step was to borrow yen at low interest rates. What is the long and short of
borrowing yen? A short position. So if you really want to know what's going on
in the world of stimulus, keep an eye on anything related to the yen.” CNBC Video at…http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000163839&play=1
MARKET RECAP
Wednesday, the S&P 500 was unchanged and finished at 1579 (rounded). VIX rose about 1% to 13.61.
Wednesday, the S&P 500 was unchanged and finished at 1579 (rounded). VIX rose about 1% to 13.61.
Market internals are basically flat and thus
aren’t giving many clues about market direction. 10-dMA of the percentage of stocks advancing,
though, continues a long down-trend that started back in November so unless
that trend changes, this market will revert back to correction mode at some
point fairly soon. It may take another
week or two. We’ll see. Calling short term movement is mostly
impossible, so “we’ll see” is about the best I can do.
NTSM
Wednesday, the NTSM analysis was HOLD at the close. Only the SENTIMENT indicator is negative. VOLUME,
VIX and PRICE are all neutral.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500
-1540). My reasoning may be found at…http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2013/03/why-i-got-mostly-out-of-stock-market.html
…but now I have confirmation from the NTSM analysis which sold at 1575 on 16 April. (This is just another reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am under-performing my own system by about 2%!)
I have no problems leaving 20% or 30% invested. If the market is cut in half (worst case) I’d
only lose 10%-15% of my investments. It
also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I will have some invested if the market
goes up. No system is perfect.
