“As widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee —
the central bank's policy making arm — kept its benchmark overnight lending
rate target at a range of 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent.” Story at…
ADP EMPLOYMENT (Reuters)
“U.S. private employers added 246,000 jobs in January,
above economists' expectations, a report by a payrolls processor showed on
Wednesday.” Story at…
ISM INDEX (MarketWatch)
“American manufacturers grew in January at the fastest
pace in more than two years and many executives said the outlook “looks
stronger” at the start of the 2017. The Institute for Supply Management said
its manufacturing index climbed to 56%...” Story at…
Mt cmt: The full ISM report noted that respondents
indicated that both the economy and manufacturing were growing faster. Read the
press release here…
AUTO SALES (ABC news)
“U.S. auto sales lagged in January as buyers recovered
from holiday spending sprees, but the slowdown won't last long…General Motors
Co.'s sales fell 3.8 percent…” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was essentially unchanged (up
1-pt when rounded) to 2280.
-VIX dipped about 2% to 11.81
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.477%.
Money Trend is definitely headed sharply down; Smart
Money (late-day action) remains mixed; and the daily sum of indicators turned
slightly more bullish as it moved up to +3. The smoothed version of the sum of
16-indicators takes out daily volatility and it remained heading down.
As I’ve said for a while, I think the upside potential is
limited while the downside risk is fairly high, at least for a short-term pullback.
I remain a short-term bear; Long-term I am a Bull.
CURRENT RANKING OF 11 ETFs (Ranked Daily)*
#1 RANK for the past 60-days: Financial Select Sector
SPDR ETF (XLF).
Here’s today’s complete result of the ETF Ranking.
I would avoid IBB and XLV; currently their 120-dMAs are
declining.
*For background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page
at…
TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the total portfolio)
Rydex 2x Short S&P 500 (RYTPX): Established 6 Dec.
2x Short S&P 500 (SDS): Established 16 Dec.
Long Volatility ETN (VXX): Established 6 Jan 2017.
NET:
Now I wish I had tightened trading rules sooner. I am
underwater again!
“In a bull market, you can only be long or
neutral.” – D. Gartman
(I am beginning to agree with Dennis.)
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
-10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing
(NYSE): 51.5%. (52.1% prior trading-day.) A number above 50% is usually BULLISH
for the markets short-term.
-150-day moving average of advancing stocks: 52.7%. (A
value above 50% indicates a long-term, up-trend.)
-McClellan Oscillator: Improved from -23 to -34
(percentage calculation method adjusted to fit McClellan’s values).
-New-highs minus new-lows: +141
(It was +53 prior trading day.)
-10-day moving average of the change in spread: +8. In
other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has increased by 8
each day.
Market Internals remained
Neutral on the market
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Wednesday, the Sentiment, VIX & Volume indicators
were neutral. The Price indicator was positive.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in
the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 23 Sep 2016 in my long-term
accounts.
Remainder is 50% G-Fund. This is a conservative retiree allocation.
