Two great books on George Washington:
(1) Washington’s Crossing , David H. Fischer. It covers
the military campaigns early in the revolution.
(2) Washington, A Life, by Ron Chernow. It covers his
entire life.
Both were Pulitzer Prize winners.
EARNINGS AND PE (FACTSET)
-For Q4 2016, the blended earnings growth rate for the
S&P 500 is 4.6%. The fourth quarter will mark the first time the index has
seen year-over-year growth in earnings for two consecutive quarters since Q4
2014 and Q1 2015. [AS noted before, this is the real reason for the “Trump
Rally”.
-The current forward 12-month P/E ratio of 17.6 is now
above the four most recent historical averages: five-year (15.2), 10-year
(14.4), 15-year (15.2), and 20-year (17.2). In fact, this week marked the first
time the forward 12-month P/E has been equal to (or above) 17.6 since June 23,
2004.
FACTSET excerpts and chart from FACTSET at…
The chart doesn’t look scary, but John Hussman, PhD, has
pointed out on multiple occasions that the median PE is now higher than it
was during the dot.com bubble. Valuation may be stretched, but it can
stretch higher. Valuation alone is a
poor way to time the market.
CASS FREIGHT INDEX (CASS Information Systems)
“Both the Shipments and the Expenditures Indexes have now
turned positive. [Year-over-year +3.2% and +4.3% respectively] Throughout the
U.S. economy, there is a growing number of data points that suggest that the
worst is over and the economy is getting better. Some data points are simply
less bad, but an increasing number of them are better, and even a few are
becoming outright strong.” CASS Freight Index report. Available at…
http://www.cassinfo.com/Transportation-Expense-Management/Supply-Chain-Analysis/Cass-Freight-Index.aspx
