“Inflation at the U.S. wholesale level posted the biggest
increase in January since 2012, propelled by rising gasoline prices. The
Producer Price Index jumped 0.6% in January…core producer prices have climbed
1.6% in the past year, down from a two-year high of 1.8% two months ago.” Story
at…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ppi-shows-biggest-gain-in-wholesale-inflation-since-2012-2017-02-14
SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM (Advisor Perspectives)
“The stunning climb in optimism after the election was
significantly improved in December and confirmed in January,” said NFIB President and CEO Juanita Duggan.
“Small business owners like what they see so far from Washington.” Details and
charts at…
VALENTINES DAY THOUGHTS FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP
“I love this country… I love the Old Days…I love free
trade…I
love what I’m doing… I love my company…I love building buildings… I love Australia…I
love the poorly educated…I love NASCAR…I love your potatoes… I love
hoppin’ around… I love the way they twist and turn…I love helping
people…I love women”…This could go on for hours. For video see…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 was up about 0.4% to 2338.
-VIX fell about 3% to 10.74.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.472%. (Since
the yield is an inverse to price, this means investors were selling
Treasuries.)
I listed a litany of bear signs yesterday’s blog. Today
we see that 9 out of the last 10 days were up. That’s just another bearish sign. The Market
is overextended, but NEVER MIND; stocks appear that they will keep going up
forever.
CURRENT RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, Financials (XLF) have outperformed the S&P
500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
I would avoid IBB, XLU, iEAFE and XLV; currently their
120-dMAs are declining.
Recommended ETF Portfolio:
Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF)
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense (ITA)
iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the total
portfolio)
Rydex 2x Short S&P 500 (RYTPX): Established 6 Dec.
2x Short S&P 500 (SDS): Established 16 Dec.
Long Volatility ETN (VXX): Established 6 Jan 2017.
NET:
Now I wish I had tightened trading rules sooner. I am
underwater again!
-“In a bull market, you can only be long or
neutral.” – D. Gartman
-“The best policy
is to avoid shorting unless a major bear market is underway and downside
momentum has been thoroughly established. Even then, your timing must sometimes
be perfect. In a bull market the trend is truly your friend, and trading
against the grain is usually a fool's errand.” – Clif Droke. Commentary
at…
“There are two
kinds of forecasters. Those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t
know.”- John Kenneth Galbraith.(Hmmmm – perhaps I am #2?)
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals switched
to Neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Tuesday, Sentiment was negative. VIX & Volume indicators were neutral. The
Price indicator was positive.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in
the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 23 Sep 2016 in my long-term
accounts.
Remainder is 50% G-Fund. This is a conservative retiree allocation.
