“U.S. homebuilding fell in January as the construction of
multi-family housing projects dropped, but upward revisions to the prior
month's data and a jump in permits to a one-year high suggested the housing
recovery remained on track.” Story at…
UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (Bloomberg)
“Fewer Americans than forecast filed last week
applications for unemployment benefits, underscoring a vibrant labor market. Jobless
claims rose by 5,000 to 239,000 in the week ended Feb. 11, a report from the
Labor Department showed Thursday…Near historic lows, first-time claims have
been below 300,000 for the longest period since 1970.” Story at…
PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING (MarketWatch)
“The Philadelphia Fed said its manufacturing index soared
in February to a 33-year high, in another indication of improving business
sentiment in the wake of a Republican election sweep. The Philadelphia Fed
index surged to a reading of 43.3 from 23.6 in January.” Story at…
THE BLACK SWAN (Politico)
“There’s already talk of impeachment, just three weeks
into Donald Trump’s turbulent presidency. In fact, many are already betting on
it….And the odds aren’t as long as you might think. Ladbrokes, the British odds making giant, has Trump’s chances
of leaving office via resignation or impeachment and removal at just 11-to-10,
or just a little worse than even money.” Story at…
My cmt: The odds are 4-1 against impeachment this year in
Ireland. That’s still pretty high, isn’t it?
MORE TRUMP SPECULATION (International Business Times)
“If Trump's team were found to have conspired with Russia
to interfere in the election, experts believe this could constitute grounds for
impeachment under anti-treason laws. Former NSA legal counsel Susan Hennessey told Forbes that
"If sufficient evidence emerges that the FBI has substantiated the
allegations or is preparing criminal indictments, then even hardline
Republicans in Congress will likely call for [US vice president Mike] Pence to
take the oath of office." Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 was down about 0.1% to 2347.
-VIX dropped about 2% to 11.76.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 2.448%.
(Since the yield is an inverse to price, this means investors were buying
Treasuries.)
The crisis is on; the market actually dropped for one
day. There was late day buying that
hinted at a bullish turn. Longer term,
late day action suggests the Pros are lightening up after the big bull run.
As previously noted, the Market is overextended, but NEVER
MIND; stocks appear that they will keep going up forever. EVERYONE IS BULLISH.
CURRENT RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, Financials (XLF) have outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
I would avoid XLU and iEAFE; currently their 120-dMAs are
declining.
Recommended ETF Portfolio of top 3:
-Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF)
-iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense (ITA)
-iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)
Also, the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) Technology
Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) are close to the others.
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the
total portfolio)
Rydex 2x Short S&P 500 (RYTPX): Established 6 Dec.
2x Short S&P 500 (SDS): Established 16 Dec.
Long Volatility ETN (VXX): Established 6 Jan 2017.
NET:
Now I wish I had tightened trading rules sooner. I am
underwater again!
-“In a bull market, you can only be long or
neutral.” – D. Gartman
-“The best policy
is to avoid shorting unless a major bear market is underway and downside
momentum has been thoroughly established. Even then, your timing must sometimes
be perfect. In a bull market the trend is truly your friend, and trading
against the grain is usually a fool's errand.” – Clif Droke.
“There are two kinds of forecasters. Those who
don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know.”- John Kenneth Galbraith.
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
switched to Neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Thursday, Price was positive; Sentiment, VIX & Volume
indicators were neutral.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in
the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 23 Sep 2016 in my long-term
accounts.
Remainder is 50% G-Fund. This is a conservative retiree allocation.
