“The energy sector received bullish inventory data
Wednesday as the nation’s stockpiles of crude oil and refined fuels fell. A
week after hitting a record-high level of crude storage, U.S. commercial oil
inventories fell by 2.2 million barrels….The inventory news is expected to
further boost oil prices…” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 dropped about 0.4% to 2345.
-VIX rose about 5% to 15.77 at the close.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.24%.
The S&P 500 Index is 0.3% under its 50-dMA. Now the question is, “Will we get the test
of the 2142 level?” It seems likely but there were some bullish signs today.
BULLISH
-Wednesday was statistically significant, meaning the
outsized down day (on a statistical basis) usually is followed by a positive
day.
-Bollinger bands are close to the lower band, about 0.4%
above the lower band.
-There have been only 7 up-days in the last month and
that can sometimes be a bottom indicator.
BEARISH
-The XLI is underperforming the S&P 500. Cyclical stocks are under stress and they often
lead in a correction.
-VIX has been climbing recently.
-Up-volume is falling.
-Money Trend is now pointed down.
-Late day action was down today and the 20-dMA of late
day action is sharply down (The Pros have been selling.)
-My Sum of 16 Indicators dropped from -5 to -10.
-The % of stocks on the NYSE that are advancing is now
falling.
NEUTRAL
-RSI is neutral.
Let’s see what happens at the 2142 level, if we get
there.
CURRENT RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
1. Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) remains the
top ranked ETF.
(I took positions in XLF and XLK Wednesday, 29 March.) My
guess is that XLF will rebound after a correction as the interest rates rise.
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the
total portfolio)
No positions.
Until the market makes a decision (up or down) there is no point in
guessing. Indicators remain mixed.
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
switched to Negative on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Wednesday, the VIX indicator was negative; Sentiment,
Price & Volume indicators were neutral.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased
stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 24
March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators.
Remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree
allocation based mostly on low volume at the test of the 50-dMA.
