“The economy added 98,000 jobs in March, knocking the
unemployment rate down to 4.5 percent, according to data released by the
Department of Labor Friday.” Story at…
My cmt: 98,000 jobs is a huge miss and far below last
month’s 200+ jobs report.
AVG HOURLY EARNINGS (Business Insider)
“According to the February jobs
report, average hourly earnings grew by 2.8% from the prior year, well above
the disappointing 2.5% rate in January…” Story at…
WHOLESALE INVENTORIES (Reuters)
“U.S. wholesale inventories increased as previously
estimated in February, but the pace of inventory accumulation appears to have
slowed relative to the fourth quarter. The Commerce Department said on Friday
wholesale inventories rose 0.4 percent after falling 0.2 percent in January.”
Story at…
My cmt: This should help the GDP calculation for the 1st
Quarter.
RECESSION? FAHGETTABOUDIT!
“If history is a guide, the current ratios of weekly
claims to the labor force contradict the minority view that the US is bordering
on recession. Instead, the ratios suggest that even a near-term recession would
be many months in the future.” – Jill Mislinski. Advisor Perspectives at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 dipped about 0.1% to 2356.
-VIX rose about 3% to 12.80 near the close.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.381%.
Most indicators are trending up. There are a few naysayers though, and they’re
important ones. New-highs are trending
down; and Up-volume is now trending down.
Neither if these facts are encouraging. Today’s close didn’t garner much
optimism either as (for the most part) the Index fell from 2Pm thru the close.
But overall the market tug-of-war continues with mixed
indicators and a chart that hasn’t yet resolved itself – are we going up or
down? It looks like we will have a longer wait.”
CURRENT RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
Utilities (XLU) was the biggest loser on the day,
probably due to the rise in interest rates that make the utilities less
desirable to own.
1. Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) remains the
top ranked ETF.
(I took positions in XLF and XLK Wednesday, 29 March.) My
guess is that XLF will rebound after a correction as the interest rates rise.
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the
total portfolio)
No positions.
Until the market makes a decision (up or down) there is no point in
guessing. Indicators remain mixed.
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals switched
to Neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Friday, the Price indicator is positive; Sentiment,
Volume & VIX indicators were neutral.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased
stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 24
March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators.
Remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree
allocation based mostly on low volume at the test of the 50-dMA.
