“A resurgence among American manufacturers that began
last fall and picked up after the election of Donald Trump carried on in March,
with employment rising to the highest level in six years, according to a survey
of executives. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index fell slightly to 57.2% last month…” Story
at…
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (Wichita Eagle)
“U.S. developers ramped up construction spending in
February to the largest amount in nearly 11 years, led by more building of
homes, highways and schools.
Construction spending rose 0.8 percent in February.”
Story at…
AUTO SALES (Reuters)
"Major U.S. automakers on Monday posted sales
figures for March that came in below market expectations and heightened concerns
America's long, robust boom cycle for car sales may finally be losing steam,
pushing car companies' shares down. General Motors Co (GM.N)
and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCHA.MI)
(FCAU.N)
shares both fell almost 4 percent, while Ford Motor Co (F.N)
was off 3 percent.” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 was down about 0.2% to 2359.
-VIX rose about 0.1% to 12.38
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.336%.
The S&P 500 dipped to within a couple of points of
the 50-day moving average (50-dMA) around noon and moved up from there all
afternoon. That’s good to see especially since the Index fell hard Friday in
the last half hour. That was followed by
after-hours selling Friday and some initial bearish Futures numbers. The futures turned around Monday morning
(early) and the Index held up reasonably well today, i.e. no major selling. We
still may see another test of the 50-day at a close and we’ll just have to
evaluate it if it happens. For now, I
think a bullish stance remains justified, but signals are not very strong. It
looks like traders are waiting for the direction to become more apparent.
I remain cautiously bullish, both short-term and longer
term.
CURRENT RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
I would avoid iEAFE (Europe and Far East) & XLE;
currently their 120-dMAs are declining.
Recommended ETF Portfolio of top 3:
1. Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK)
2. Consumer Discretionary (XLY)
3. A number of ETFs are pretty close for the 3rd
position.
(I took positions in XLF and XLK Wednesday, 29 March.)
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the
total portfolio)
I closed all remaining short positions on 3/28/2017. My losses were big enough that I am too
embarrassed to list them here.
- Rydex S&P 500 2x Strategy. Established 3/28/2017
- 2x S&P 500 ETF (SSO). Established 3/28/2017
-“In a bull market, you can only be long or
neutral.” – D. Gartman
-“The best policy
is to avoid shorting unless a major bear market is underway and downside
momentum has been thoroughly established. Even then, your timing must sometimes
be perfect. In a bull market the trend is truly your friend, and trading
against the grain is usually a fool's errand.” – Clif Droke.
“There are two kinds of forecasters. Those who
don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know.”- John Kenneth Galbraith.
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
Neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Monday, the Price indicator is positive; Sentiment,
Volume & VIX indicators were neutral.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased
stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 24
March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators.
Remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree
allocation based mostly on low volume at the test of the recent bottom.
