“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“The big money is not in the buying and selling. But in
the waiting.” - Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway
“In my decades of investing experience, I have not seen
such mindless and uninformed speculation as I have witnessed
recently. Indeed, in nominal dollar terms...it is far in excess of the
dot.com boom.” – Doug Cass.
BIDDEN ORDERS STUDY OF SUPREME COURT CHANGES (WSJ)
“President Biden ordered a commission to study Supreme
Court changes such as adding seats, an idea pushed by progressives in his party
that faces strong opposition from congressional Republicans... Advocates for
expanding the court say that the conservative majority is out of sync with both
public views and mainstream legal thinking and that increasing the number of
justices would correct that.” Story
at...
HOW FDR TRIED TO PACK THE COURT (History.com)
“Over the course of the Depression, Roosevelt was pushing
through legislation and, beginning in May 1935, the Supreme Court began to
strike down a number of the New Deal laws. “Over the next 13 months, the court
struck down more pieces of legislation than at any other time in U.S. history,”
Woolner says. Roosevelt’s first New Deal program—in
particular, its centerpiece, the National Recovery
Administration, along with parts of the Agricultural Adjustment
Act—had been struck down by unanimous and near-unanimous votes.
This frustrated Roosevelt and got him thinking about
adding justices to the court, says Peter Charles Hoffer, history professor at
the University of Georgia and author of The Supreme Court: An Essential History. When
he won the election of 1936 in a landslide, Roosevelt decided to float the
plan. It met instant opposition.
While it was never voted on in Congress, the Supreme
Court justices went public in their opposition to it. And a majority of the
public never supported the bill, either, says Barbara A. Perry, director of
presidential studies at the University of Virginia’s Miller Center....“It was
never realistic that this plan would pass,” Perry says. “Roosevelt badly
miscalculated reverence for the Court and its independence from an overreaching
president.” From...
https://www.history.com/news/franklin-roosevelt-tried-packing-supreme-court
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website as
of 5:30pm Monday. US total case numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers are
on the right side of the graph with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in Green.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 was
down about a point to 4128.
-VIX rose about 1% to 16.91.
-The yield on the 10-year
Treasury rose to 1.669%.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators
declined from +8 to +7 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish);
the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +51
to +59 (These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late.) Most of these indicators are short-term and many are trend
following.
The Long Term NTSM indicator
ensemble remained BUY. Price, VIX & Volume are bullish; Sentiment is
neutral.
I remain Bullish, but I reduced the % invested in stocks
to 50% on Monday. I am not calling for a top, but I saw enough issues last week
to take a little off the table.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
INTEL (Seeking Alpha)
“During today's GTC event, Nvidia (NVDA +2.7%) announces its first data center CPU, which the company says will deliver 10x
the performance of today's fastest
servers on the most complex and high-performance workloads. Availability is
expected at the beginning of 2023. Intel (INTC -4.0%) and AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) shares are lower after the news.” Story at...
My cmt: It will be several years before Nvidia starts
making CPUs and, as reported on CNBC, the CPU market they plan to enter is a small
part of Intel’s business.
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
Market Internals slipped to NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
Using the Short-term indicator
in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold.
The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE
indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test
included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.
As of 12 April, my
stock-allocation is about 50% invested in stocks. You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
As a retiree, 50% in the stock
market is about fully invested for me – it is a cautious and conservative
number. If I feel very confident, I might go to 60%; if a correction is deep
enough, and I can call a bottom, 80% would not be out of the question.
The markets have not retested the lows on recent corrections and that left me under-invested on the bounces. I will need to put less reliance on retests in the future.
