“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“The big money is not in the buying and selling. But in
the waiting.” - Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway
“In my decades of investing experience, I have not seen
such mindless and uninformed speculation as I have witnessed
recently. Indeed, in nominal dollar terms...it is far in excess of the
dot.com boom.” – Doug Cass.
SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM (Morningstar)
“Optimism among small-business owners in the U.S.
continued to rise in March on the back of the passage of the American Rescue
Plan and the easing of Covid-19 restrictions in many states. The NFIB Small
Business Optimism Index came in at 98.2 in March, up 2.4 points from the
previous month...” Story at...
CPI (CNBC)
“Consumer prices shot higher in March, given a boost by a
strong economic recovery and year-economy, the Labor Department reported
Tuesday. The consumer price index rose 0.6% from the previous month but 2.6%
from the same period a year ago.” Story
at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/13/us-consumer-price-index-march-2021.html
FAKE NEWS OUTRAGE OVER GEORGIA VOTING LAW COSTING JOBS (MSN.com)
“...After Georgia's General Assembly passed SB 202 and
Governor Brian Kemp signed the bill, a powerful misinformation machine quickly
kicked into gear...
...Senator Chuck Schumer
was one of the first out of the gate, stating the General Assembly
"recently passed a bill to eliminate early voting on Sunday"—a claim
which was patently false. The law actually doubles the required days of early
voting.
...President Biden himself weighed in, calling Georgia's
new election law "Jim Crow on steroids." His basis for the claim?
Biden said that the new Georgia law limits early voting hours—another obvious
falsehood. The new law actually increases both early voting hours and the
number of weekend voting days. These false claims were so blatant that even The Washington Post
gave Biden four Pinocchios, while Politifact fact-checked Schumer's lie...
...Georgia Senate Bill 62, which calls for ballots in the
state of Georgia to have a watermark, seal and other security elements to
include the precinct number. These are simply best practices for voting that
any ordinary Georgian should support. The bill even received numerous
Democratic votes...
... You don't have to agree with Georgia's common-sense
election integrity laws to see the threat that these lies pose to democracy.”- John
Albers, Senator, Georgia General Assembly, 56th district. Story at...
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website as
of 6:30pm Tuesday. US total case numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers
are on the right side of the graph with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in Green.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose
about 0.3% to 4142.
-VIX dipped about 1% to 16.71.
-The yield on the 10-year
Treasury slipped to 1.617%.
Investors are buying Utilities
(XLE-ETF) at a faster pace than the S&P 500. This is not a good sign and suggests a
correction may be coming. Top indicators are close to issuing a top-warning: The
Index is too far above its 200-dMA; RSI is overbought; the Index is too far
ahead of breadth; and the Index is too far ahead of Money Trend.
Today, we had very high,
unchanged-volume. In theory this in an
indication that investors are confused and it can signal a reversal, in this
case down. I’ve tried to develop an indicator based on this without much
success. Sometimes it’s true; sometimes not.
It was about this high at the top on 12 Feb that preceded a small pullback of
4%, but it has been higher since then with no dip.
The market remains relatively broad; 7.2% of all
issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a
new all-time today, 13 Apr. This value is above average, and suggests that a
correction, if we have one, would be less than a 10% drop.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators
declined from +7 to +4 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish);
the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +59
to +66 (These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late.) Most of these indicators are short-term and many are trend
following.
The Long Term NTSM indicator
ensemble remained BUY. Price & Volume are bullish; VIX & Sentiment
are neutral.
I remain cautiously Bullish, but I did reduce my %-invested
in stocks to 50% on Monday. I think we are getting close to a pullback of some
kind.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
Market Internals remained NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
Using the Short-term indicator in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold. The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.
As of 12 April, my
stock-allocation is about 50% invested in stocks. You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
As a retiree, 50% in the stock
market is about fully invested for me – it is a cautious and conservative
number. If I feel very confident, I might go to 60%; if a correction is deep
enough, and I can call a bottom, 80% would not be out of the question.
The markets have not
retested the lows on recent corrections and that left me under-invested on the
bounces. I will need to put less reliance on retests in the future.
