“President Biden’s defiant, accusatory defense on Tuesday
of his Afghanistan withdrawal and its execution was so dishonest, and so
lacking in self-reflection or accountability, that it was unworthy of the
sacrifices Americans have made in that conflict.” – WSJ Editorial.
ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (Yaho Finance)
“Private sector employment increased by 374,000 jobs from
July to August according to the August ADP® National Employment Report™..."Our data, which
represents all workers on a company's payroll, has highlighted a downshift in
the labor market recovery. We have seen a decline in new hires, following
significant job growth from the first half of the year," said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. "Despite the
slowdown, job gains are approaching 4 million this year, yet still 7 million
jobs short of pre-COVID-19 levels.”
Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/adp-national-employment-report-private-121500166.html
IHS MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI (Morningstar News)
“Activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector slowed in
August as strong demand for goods met with persistent capacity constraints and
material shortages that constrained output growth. The final reading for the
U.S. Manufacturing Business Activity PMI for August came in at 61.1..” Story
at...
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (Business Times)
“US construction spending picked up in July, lifted by
gains in both private and public sector projects...Construction spending rose
9.0 per cent on a year-on-year basis in July.” Story at...
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/real-estate/construction-spending-rises-in-july-amid-abroad-gains
EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 7.2 million barrels from the
previous week. At 425.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
6% below the five year average for this time of year.” Press release at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
USING A LIVESTOCK DEWORMING DRUG TO TREAT COVID (WFLA)
“Using Ivermectin for COVID is not recommended by the FDA
and isn’t proven to be effective...Leah Ward Winchester, who has studied the
drug’s connection to COVID...cites ongoing studies conducted to determine how
effective the drug is against COVID. But these studies are being done with the
proper doses and ingredients meant for humans, not things found in farm stores.”
Story at...
My cmt: My niece is a veterinary PA. She can’t get this drug for her practice due
to panic buying by people using it for Covid. Don’t use the veterinary version
of this medicine! The jury is still out, but see the following piece.
IVERMECTIN FOR PREVENTION AND TREATMENT OF COVID-19
INFECTION (American Journal of Therapeutics)
“The antiparasitic ivermectin, with antiviral and
anti-inflammatory properties, has now been tested in numerous clinical
trials...Moderate-certainty evidence finds that large reductions in COVID-19
deaths are possible using ivermectin. Using ivermectin early in the clinical
course may reduce numbers progressing to severe disease. The apparent safety
and low cost suggest that ivermectin is likely to have a significant impact on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic globally...Ivermectin is
likely to be an equitable, acceptable, and feasible global intervention against
COVID-19. Health professionals should strongly consider its use, in both
treatment and prophylaxis.” Journal paper at...
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website as
of 6:00 PM Wednesday. U.S. total case numbers are on the left axis; daily
numbers are on the right side of the graph in Red with the 10-dMA of daily
numbers in Green.
The smoothed 10-dMA of new cases rose to a new-high of
over 150,000 cases today. I don’t see
the improvement reported by the media. They were saying the new-case load is
falling in hot-spot locations. Maybe, but
cases must be picking up elsewhere, because overall US numbers continue to
climb.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was up about 1pt to 4524.
-VIX slipped about 0.4% to 16.11.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 1.300%.
One of the simplest indicators is to count how many
up-days occur on a given index over varying timeframes. I keep track of this
over 10 and 20-day periods for the S&P 500.
Currently, both have reached their upper limits. We’ve seen 15 up-days
over the last 20-days and 8 up-days over the last 10-days. If either of those
numbers get higher, it would send a bearish signal. It would take 3 more consecutive
up-days to flip the 20-day and even more to flip the 10-day value. That’s because
in a moving average, the last value (in this case 10 or 20 days ago) is dropped
and the latest value is added. If the last value is an up-day and the latest
value is an up-day, there is no change on the overall number. As it is, these
indicators are mildly bearish and suggest a down-day for tomorrow.
Investors were buying utilities today. In the longer
term, utilities (XLU-ETF) are outperforming the S&P 500. The cyclical industrials (XLI-ETF) are
underperforming the S&P 500. Both are bearish signs.
Otherwise, Indicators continue to improve slowly.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from +2 to +4 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum
that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -58 to -42. (These numbers
sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most
of these indicators are short-term and many are trend following.
The Long Term NTSM indicator
ensemble remained HOLD. Volume is bullish; Price, VIX & Sentiment
indicators are neutral.
I am cautiously bullish. A top is coming, but not THE TOP.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained BULLISH on the market.
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
My stock-allocation is now about
50% invested in stocks; this is my “normal” 50% allocation.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
As a general rule, some
suggest that the % of portfolio invested in the stock market should be one’s
age subtracted from 100. So a 30 year
old person would have 70% of the portfolio in stocks, stock mutual funds and/or
stock ETFs. That’s ok, but I usually don’t
recommend keeping less than 50% invested in stocks (as a fully invested
position) since most people need some growth in the portfolio to keep up with
inflation.
