"Delta is reducing consumer demand and threatening the reopening, ultimately it's just a harsh reminder that the pandemic has control of our destiny," - Daniel Zhao, Senior Economist, Glassdoor.
LARGE INCREASE IN EPS (FACTSET)
“During the first two months of the third quarter,
analysts increased earnings estimates for companies in the S&P 500 for the
quarter. The Q3 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an aggregation of the median
EPS estimates for Q3 for all the companies in the index) increased by 3.8% (to
$49.31 from $47.50) during this period...In fact, the third quarter marked the
fourth-largest increase in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first two
months of a quarter since 2009. It also marked the fifth straight quarter in
which the bottom-up EPS estimate increased during the first two months of the
quarter.” Story at...
UNTETHERED (NorthmanTrader)
“The 5 EMA is such a regular magnet for markets that all
history also teaches us that the farther markets move away from the 5 EMA,
either to the downside or the upside, it tends to revert and reconnect [but
now]...not only must markets make constant new highs, they can’t even afford a
5% pullback without breaking the uptrend which would invite all sorts of
negative technical consequences and could change the current market landscape
dramatically not necessarily staying confined to a mere 5% pullback. The only
way for markets to avoid a trend break then is to continue to avoid all market
history of monthly 5EMA reconnects. All of history. This is what investors must
then count on. Best of luck.” Sven Henrich.
Commentary at...
https://northmantrader.com/2021/09/01/untethered/
SLOPPY BIASED CORONAVIRUS REPORTING (NPR)
“Joe Rogan, the mega-popular podcast host who has
suggested that young, fit people don't need to get the COVID-19 vaccine, has
announced he tested positive for the virus, but is feeling fine thanks to a
cocktail of unproven medical treatments...Rogan added that his treatments also
included monoclonal antibodies, Z-pack antibiotics and a vitamin drip for
"three days in a row." Story at...
https://www.npr.org/2021/09/01/1033485152/joe-rogan-covid-ivermectin
My cmt: While NPR’s story criticized Rogan for taking
Ivermectin and “unproven medical treatments”, they (and many other media sites)
ignored the fact that Rogan said he took “monoclonal antibodies”. That is the
Gold Standard for Covid treatment. It includes Regeneron Pharmaceuticals’
two-antibody combination REGN-COV2 and may have included Remdesivir from
Gilead. Those drugs alone would have cured Rogan so the discussion of
Ivermectin here is meaningless and is designed to send a message (Ivermectin is
bad; Rogan is bad) rather than reporting the full story. NPR can no longer be trusted to present the news fairy.
The wackos on the other side also cited Rogan’s
experience to tout Ivermectin as good. Here’s a clip from ZeroHedge (whose goal
seems to be to create divisiveness on any subject they cover) where they
completely left out the fact that Rogan got an antibody treatment. From ZeroHedge:
"So we threw the kitchen sink at it, all kinds of meds,” Rogan said,
adding that he took a Z-Pak (aka the antibiotic azithromycin), prednisolone (a
corticosteroid used to treat inflammation) and Ivermectin, which is a drug used
for decades to treat a wide variety of
parasitic and other infections - and more recently, Covid.” Story at...
I don’t trust ZeroHedge and I would suggest that anyone
reading ZeroHedge do a fact-check of any piece they publish.
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website
as of 5:30 PM Tuesday. U.S. total case numbers are on the left axis; daily
numbers are on the right side of the graph in Red with the 10-dMA of daily
numbers in Green.
The smoothed 10-dMA of new cases dropped a little
today. That may be due to under-reporting
over the long weekend or perhaps new-cases really are dropping. New patients
aren’t dropping in Richmond at my daughter’s hospital. They have patents in
the halls and ICU patients backed up in the ER. Almost all new cases are unvaccinated.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 was down about 0.3% to 4523.
-VIX rose about 7% to 17.5.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.373%.
There were several articles about a coming correction
mainly because some of the big banks turned more bearish. The CNBC pundits all agreed – September is a bad
month and they were more bearish in their discussions. Usually, when everyone
thinks one thing will happen, it doesn’t. We’ll probably have a correction, but
it won’t happen until the pundits have given up and gone bullish. In the meantime,
we’ll be watching the signals to see if we can see it coming. Now, I don’t see evidence of a correction.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators slipped from +1 to -2 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum
that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -14 to -8. (These numbers
sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most
of these indicators are short-term and many are trend following.
The Long Term NTSM indicator ensemble
remained HOLD. Volume, Price, VIX & Sentiment indicators are neutral.
I am cautiously bullish. A top is coming, but not THE TOP.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
Market Internals slipped to NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
My stock-allocation is now about
50% invested in stocks; this is my “normal” 50% allocation.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
As a general rule, some
suggest that the % of portfolio invested in the stock market should be one’s
age subtracted from 100. So a 30 year
old person would have 70% of the portfolio in stocks, stock mutual funds and/or
stock ETFs. That’s ok, but for older
investors, I usually don’t recommend keeping less than 50% invested in stocks
(as a fully invested position) since most people need some growth in the
portfolio to keep up with inflation.
