DURABLE ORDERS (Fox Business)
“Orders for big-ticket items jumped last month as
manufacturers continued to navigate the supply-chain disruptions caused
by COVID-19. New
orders for manufactured durable goods in August rose 1.8% to $263.5 billion,
according to the Census Bureau.” Story at...
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/durable-goods-orders-august-2021
THE S&P 500 HAS TO HOLD THIS LEVEL (MarketWatch)
“This [the S&P 500 break above its 50-dMA] is obviously a bullish development, but we
want to make sure that it holds above that 50-DMA into next week. If it does,
it will be quite bullish,” wrote Maley [Matt Maley, chief market strategist at
Miller Tabak + Co.]...Should that happen, Maley said he’ll be “back to watching
the 100-DMA like a hawk. Any meaningful break below that 100-DMA and its lows
from Monday would scare the hell out of people. Therefore, that kind of move
over the next few weeks would be very bearish,” he said.” Story at...
UN IPCC REPORT CODE RED FOR CLIMATE ALARMISM (Washington
Examiner)
“This summer, the United Nations's Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change released the near-final version of its “Sixth
Assessment Report,” an apparently comprehensive survey of the climate
literature since the last one in 2014....Reading the report gives the
impression the weather is getting much, much worse. What
it doesn’t say is that people are getting much, much better at
adapting to “extreme” weather events.
...The lurid new IPCC report is a code red for alarmism.
Humanity seems to be doing just fine. And we will be around to run an
experiment in adaptation, which so far is looking successful.” Story at...
The
UN's IPCC report is a code red for climate alarmism (msn.com)
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website as
of 4:30 PM Monday. U.S. total case numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers
are on the right side of the graph in Red with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in
Green.
I added the smoothed 10-dMA of new cases (in purple) to
the chart.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.3% to 4443.
-VIX rose about 6% to 18.85.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.485%.
The Friday run-down of some important indicators turned
bullish (7-bear and 10
-bull). Bull signs continue. Today’s internals were all
bullish and the 50-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE finished above 50%,
another bullish sign.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from -1 to +3 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum
that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -73 to -60 (These numbers
sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most
of these indicators are short-term and many are trend following.
The Long Term NTSM indicator
ensemble remained HOLD. Volume, VIX, Price & Sentiment indicators are
neutral.
I’m bullish.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
Market Internals remained NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
My stock-allocation in the
portfolio is now about 55% invested in stocks; this is slightly above my
“normal” fully invested allocation of 50%.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
As a general rule, some
suggest that the % of portfolio invested in the stock market should be one’s
age subtracted from 100. So, a
30-year-old person would have 70% of the portfolio in stocks, stock mutual
funds and/or stock ETFs. That’s ok, but
for older investors, I usually don’t recommend keeping less than 50% invested
in stocks (as a fully invested position) since most people need some growth in
the portfolio to keep up with inflation.
