“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Confidence Board)
“The Conference Board Consumer
Confidence Index® increased in October, following declines in
the previous three months. The Index now stands at 113.8 (1985=100), up from
109.8 in September...“Consumer confidence improved in October, reversing a
three-month downward trend as concerns about the spread of the Delta variant
eased,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The
Conference Board. “While short-term inflation concerns rose to a 13-year high,
the impact on confidence was muted. The proportion of consumers planning to
purchase homes, automobiles, and major appliances all increased in October—a
sign that consumer spending will continue to support economic growth through
the final months of 2021.” Report at...
https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm
NEW HOME SALES (Fox Business)
“Home prices rose 19.8% year over year in August,
matching the record pace from July, according to the national Case-Shiller
index. Prices are now 45.5% above their 2006 peak...new home sales rose
for a fifth straight month in September, surging 14% to a seasonally
adjusted annual rate of 800,000, according to a report released by the U.S.
Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Sales
were 17.6% below the September 2020 estimate of 971,000.” Story at...
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/case-shiller-home-price-index-august-2021
CASS FREIGHT INDEX (CASS Information Systems)
“The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index®
slowed to just 0.6% y/y growth in September.
On a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, the Cass Shipments
Index fell by 4.9% m/m in September, after a 4.8% m/m increase in August...The
softening in September fits the pattern of many data sets, like rail volumes
and employment, and we’d ascribe some of the softness to Hurricane/Tropical
Storm Ida. This suggests some rebound in Q4, but the chip shortage also
worsened in September, and that recovery will take longer.”
Charts and report at...
https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/september-2021
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website as of 7:30 PM Tuesday. U.S. total case numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers are on the right side of the graph in Red with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in Green. I added the smoothed 10-dMA of new cases (in purple) to the chart.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 4575.
-VIX dipped rose about 5% to 15.98.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 1.610%.
Another new all-time high, let’s check the new-high stat:
6.0% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs at today’s all-time high for
the S&P 500. That’s slightly below
average, but not an issue.
RSI and the Smart Money overbought/oversold ratio are
both overbought, but there are no other topping indicators at this time. We
still don’t have an actionable warning. Bollinger Bands are close, but not
overbought yet.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators remained zero (a positive
number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths
the daily fluctuations remained +49 (These numbers sometimes change after I
post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most of these indicators are
short-term so they do tend to bounce around a lot.
The Long Term NTSM indicator
ensemble remained HOLD. Volume and Price are bullish; Sentiment and VIX
indicators are neutral. Normally this would be a buy signal, but there were 9
up-days in the last 10-sessions and that overly-bullish, negative dropped the
signal to Hold.
The S&P 500 is due for a
down day tomorrow.
I remain bullish.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
Market Internals improved to BULLISH.
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
My stock-allocation in the
portfolio is now about 65% invested in stocks; this is above my “normal” fully
invested stock-allocation of 50% stocks. Indicators are very bullish, so I am
holding a short-term position in additional Index Funds to boost returns.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a conservative
position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
As a general rule, some
suggest that the % of portfolio invested in the stock market should be one’s
age subtracted from 100. So, a
30-year-old person would have 70% of the portfolio in stocks, stock mutual
funds and/or stock ETFs. That’s ok, but
for older investors, I usually don’t recommend keeping less than 50% invested
in stocks (as a fully invested position) since most people need some growth in
the portfolio to keep up with inflation.
