“He (Glenn Youngkin Gubernatorial candidate in Virginia) won't
allow Donald Trump to campaign for him in this state. And he's willing to
pledge his loyalty to Donald Trump in private...” – President Joe Biden.
My cmt: First, Biden can’t know what has been pledged in
private, so this first part of his statement falls into the political BS
column. Second, Biden has made an incredibly foolish comment since it indicates
that Youngkin is distancing himself from Trump. This comment by the President
may gain Youngkin some independent votes.
This is another example that Biden is slipping.
“The idea that you have a federal government that has
said it wants to do away with oil, gas, and coal by 2050, that makes it
very hard for people to think about it as a future resource...The
Biden administration has done all they can to hinder us. We have some
tax deductions that we get for doing business in this country that they’re
trying to remove, and again, that drives up the cost...” - Jerry Simmons,
president of the Domestic Energy Producer Alliance (DEPA)
“Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP is
simply the total amount of spending in an economy. GDP, as currently measured,
does not distinguish between “good” spending and “bad” spending. GDP does not
distinguish between consumption spending and investment spending. GDP also does
not distinguish whether spending is generated by existing wealth, by going into
debt temporarily, or by going into debt permanently. In this world, every dollar
spent on education or new means of production, is counted the same as every
dollar spent on epic bachelor parties and video games.” – Michael Lebowitz, Real
Investment Advice
GDP (USA Today)
“The U.S. economy slowed substantially in the third
quarter amid an armada of obstacles, including a surge in COVID-19 cases,
supply chain bottlenecks, rising consumer prices and the fading effects of
federal stimulus measures... The nation’s gross domestic product, the value of
all goods and services produced in the U.S., increased at a seasonally adjusted
annual rate of 2% in the July-September period...” Story at...
JOBLESS CLAIMS (YahooFinance)
“Weekly jobless claims fell in the latest week, setting
a marginal new
pandemic-era low as the labor market slowly recovers to levels
before COVID-19 walloped the global economy....Initial unemployment claims, week ended October
23: 281,000 vs. 288,000 expected...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jobless-claims-week-ended-oct-23-184740478.html
STONKS THE CANARY IN THE STOCK COAL MINE (Felder report)
“...[stonks, or popular meme-driven equities]...potentially
peaked back in the spring with the GameStop blowoff and have
put in a pattern of lower highs ever since (although we don’t yet have a lower
low)....if these single stock manias are now, as a group, entering the bust
phase then the potential downside is significant. While intelligent investors
can argue whether the broad stock
market is overvalued or not, there simply is no debate when it
comes to stonk market. These things have become undeniably obscene.” – Jesse
Felder, Charts and commentary at...
https://thefelderreport.com/2021/10/27/stonks-the-canary-in-the-stock-market-coal-mine/
BIDEN’S DELAWARE
BEACHES STAND AS A REBUKE TO HIS CLIMATE ALARMISM (Washington Examiner)
“...a 1995 New York Times report headlined “Scientist Say Earth’s Warming
Could Set Off Wide Disruptions...at the most likely rate of rise, some experts
say, most of the beaches on the East Coast of the United States would be gone
in 25 years.” Really. Well, here it is more than 25 years later, and most of
the East Coast beaches are decidedly intact, thank you very much. Heller has
posted a plethora of information about why and how the alarmists
have been wrong about the projected rise of sea levels and why much (although,
of course, not all) of the conventional wisdom about climate change is actually
junk science.” Story at...
Biden’s
Delaware beaches stand as rebuke to his climate alarmism (msn.com)
Climate alarmism is pervasive. While the experts say that
individual storm events cannot be blamed on climate change, the Weather Channel
continues to blame climate change for every extreme event. The latest was the notheaster that hit New
England recently.
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website as of 7:30 PM Thursday. U.S. total case numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers are on the right side of the graph in Red with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in Green. I added the smoothed 10-dMA of new cases (in purple) to the chart.
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 1% to 4596.
-VIX fell about 3% to 16.53.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was 1.572%.
The following chart shows a worrying pattern of declining
100-dMA of Breadth (% of issues advancing on the NYSE) while the S&P 500
has been rising. If the 100-dMA of
Breadth drops below 50% it may be time to trim some stocks/ETF’s.
In addition, only 4.2% of issues on the NYSE made new
52-week highs when the S&P 500 made an all-time high today. That’s below
average, but not quite low enough to send a bearish signal.
There are several topping warnings now in effect: RSI; Smart
Money overbought / oversold ratio; and Breadth vs, the S&P 500. The Index is
getting ahead of the underlying % of issues advancing on the NYSE.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators declined from -3 to -7 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum
that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +44 to +28. (These numbers sometimes change after
I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most of these indicators are
short-term so they do tend to bounce around a lot.
The Long Term NTSM indicator
ensemble remained BUY. Volume and Price are bullish; Sentiment and VIX
indicators are neutral. This is an indication that the market conditions are
good. Sometimes they can be too good.
Indicators are starting to issue warnings, but for the time being, I remain bullish.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked
based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained HOLD.
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
My stock-allocation in the
portfolio is now about 65% invested in stocks; this is above my “normal” fully
invested stock-allocation of 50% stocks. Indicators are very bullish, so I am
holding a short-term position in additional Index Funds to boost returns.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a conservative
position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
As a general rule, some
suggest that the % of portfolio invested in the stock market should be one’s
age subtracted from 100. So, a
30-year-old person would have 70% of the portfolio in stocks, stock mutual
funds and/or stock ETFs. That’s ok, but
for older investors, I usually don’t recommend keeping less than 50% invested
in stocks (as a fully invested position) since most people need some growth in
the portfolio to keep up with inflation.
