“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
5 MB HARD DRIVE - 1956
My laptop has about 100,000 times more storage. Amazing.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (WSJ)
“Industrial production in the U.S. declined in September
as supply-chain disruptions in the auto industry and lingering effects of
Hurricane Ida weighed on manufacturing and mining output during the month.
Industrial production—which includes output at factory,
mining and utility companies—fell at a seasonally adjusted 1.3% in September...”
Story at...
REGARDING COLIN POWELL’S COVID DEATH WHILE VACCINATED
Colin Powell had multiple myeloma, a cancer of a type of
white blood cell, which can harm the body's immune system. Here’s an article
from the Leukemia-Lymphoma Society on the subject of blood cancers and Covid.
“About one in four blood cancer patients fail
to produce detectable antibodies after COVID-19 vaccination, but results vary
substantially by type of blood cancer, according to a new study from The
Leukemia & Lymphoma Society (LLS) that was published today in the journal Cancer
Cell (see full paper and tables).” Story at...
The numbers are much worse for patients treated with
certain cancer drugs that affect B-cells.
80% of CLL patients treated with Rituxan had no detectable anti-bodies
if treated in the previous 2 years.
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website
as of 5:00 PM Monday. U.S. total case numbers are on the left axis; daily
numbers are on the right side of the graph in Red with the 10-dMA of daily
numbers in Green. I added the smoothed 10-dMA of new cases (in purple) to the
chart.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 4486.
-VIX rose about 1% to 16.31.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.596%.
More Bull signs are popping up.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System switched to BUY. The 5-dEMA and
10-dEMA are both above the 20-dEMA.
-The size of up-moves has been bigger than the size of down-moves
over the last month, and this indicator has switched to Buy.
-I’d probably add that a follow-through day did occur 14
October. It was very close when I looked at it earlier; but if I assume “close
enough,” that would cancel the Distribution Days I noted on Friday.
-The overbought/oversold ratio is neutral today.
These changes show that currently I have NO bear signals!
That won’t last long, but the markets look very bullish right now.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators rose from +9 to +10 (a positive
number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths
the daily fluctuations improved from +10 to +19 (These numbers sometimes change
after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most of these
indicators are short-term and many are trend following.
The Long Term NTSM indicator ensemble
improved to BUY. Volume and Price are bullish; VIX and & Sentiment
indicators are neutral.
I am bullish. As
previously noted, it’s hard not be with the Friday rundown of indicators
looking so bullish.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
Market Internals remained BULLISH on the market.
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
My stock-allocation in the
portfolio is now about 65% invested in stocks; this is above my “normal” fully
invested stock-allocation of 50% stocks. See my previous post for reasons.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
As a general rule, some
suggest that the % of portfolio invested in the stock market should be one’s
age subtracted from 100. So, a
30-year-old person would have 70% of the portfolio in stocks, stock mutual
funds and/or stock ETFs. That’s ok, but
for older investors, I usually don’t recommend keeping less than 50% invested
in stocks (as a fully invested position) since most people need some growth in
the portfolio to keep up with inflation.
