Best DOW Stocks ... Best ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ... Jobless Claims ... Personal Income ... PCE Prices ... Chicago PMI

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

 

“Faced with a combination of record speculative extremes and deteriorating speculative conditions, investors may want to remember that the best time to panic is before everyone else does.” – John Hussman, Phd.

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS (YahooFinance)

“First-time filings for unemployment insurance in the U.S. totaled 231,000 for the week ended June 25, falling slightly from the prior week...claims remain only slightly above pre-pandemic levels.” Story at...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jobless-claims-june-30-2022-123546658.html

 

PERSONAL INCOME / SPENDING (Nasdaq)

“Personal income in the U.S. increased in line with economist estimates in the month of May, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Thursday. The report showed personal spending rose by 0.5 percent in May... personal spending edged up by 0.2 percent in May after climbing by...0.6 percent in April.” Story at...

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/u.s.-personal-income-increases-0.5-in-may-in-line-with-estimates

 

PCE PRICES (CNN Business)

“The monthly Personal Consumption Expenditures price index increased by 6.3% for the year ended in May, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. That matches April’s reading and suggests that price hikes have taken a breather since hitting a 40-year-high of 6.6% in March. The core PCE inflation measure, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, rose 4.7% from the year before, down from 4.9% in April.” Story at...

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/30/economy/pce-inflation-prices-may/index.html

 

CHICAGO PMI (MarketWatch)

“The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, fell to 56 in June from 60.3 in the prior month... So far this month, the regional manufacturing surveys released by Federal Reserve banks have shown a deterioration in business sentiment even as measures of activity have been positive.” Story at... 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chicago-pmi-down-sharply-in-june-11656597569

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS

-Thursday the S&P 500 fell about 0.9% to 3785.

-VIX rose about 2% to 28.71.

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was 3.020%.

 

PULLBACK DATA:

-Drop from Top: 21.1% as of today. 23.6% max.

-Days since Top: 123-days.

The S&P 500 is 13.8% BELOW its 200-dMA & 5.8% BELOW its 50-dMA.

*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, we hope to be able to call the bottom when we see it.

 

MY TRADING POSITIONS:

None. The expected bounce lost momentum.

 

TODAY’S COMMENT:

The following chart is configured so that if the S&P 500 minus XLU spread (red line) is below 0%, Utilities are out performing the S&P 500 Index. That is not a good sign. Worse, the bearish divergence is rapidly headed the wrong way, as indicated by the steep slope down.

XLI (Cyclical Industrials) are also bearishly diverging from the Index. VIX slipped from bullish to a Neutral reading – that’s not bearish, but it is headed in the wrong direction. The 5-10-20 Timer (a moving average crossover indicator) is also still bearish. On the other hand, until today, most of my other indicators were bullish. Today,  it’s sort of a mixed  bag.

 

Divergence can give clues to future movements in price. Crossover indicators and most others are trend following.  The point is to remember that no indicator is perfect and they don’t foretell the future - It’s just probability.

 

The first day of the month is an inflow day for mutual funds and retirement accounts.  It is usually up, so I’ll watch for a late-day move higher.  If markets can’t finish higher, that would be another bearish sign. (Futures are down as I write this so, we’ll see.)

 

Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators dropped from +10 to +4 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +25 to +35. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.

 

LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: SENTIMENT, VOLUME, & PRICE are bullish; VIX is Neutral. I don’t consider this a good time to be a buyer. Markets have still not bottomed, and if we do have a recession, markets are likely to fall a lot more.

 

I’m a Bear, longer-term, but the indicators are not very bearish. The ISM Manufacturing Index will be released tomorrow and that may move the markets if it shows manufacturing is appreciably slowing.

 

BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:

TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

All of the ETFs I track are below their 120-dMAs, so my chart methodology is not valid. Top four ETF ranking follows:

(1)  XLU (2) XLV (3) XLE (4) IBB

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

Here’s the revised DOW 30 and its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals slipped and are now giving a HOLD signal.

 

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. 

 

 

My stock-allocation in the portfolio is now roughly 30% invested in stocks.

 

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF.

 

You may wish to have a higher or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.

 

As a general rule, some suggest that the % of portfolio invested in the stock market should be one’s age subtracted from 100.  So, a 30-year-old person would have 70% of the portfolio in stocks, stock mutual funds and/or stock ETFs.  That’s ok, but for older investors, I usually don’t recommend keeping less than 50% invested in stocks (as a fully invested position) since most people need some growth in the portfolio to keep up with inflation.

Best DOW Stocks ... Best ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ... GDP ... Crude Inventories

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

 

“Faced with a combination of record speculative extremes and deteriorating speculative conditions, investors may want to remember that the best time to panic is before everyone else does.” – John Hussman, Phd.

 

GDP (YahooFinance)

“The U.S. economy shrank an annualized 1.6% in the first quarter, reflecting a deeper contraction than the most recent estimate of 1.5%, revised data released Wednesday showed.” Story at...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-gdp-contracted-at-a-16-annualized-rate-in-q-1-revised-data-shows-123846851.html

 

EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA for week ending 24 June)

“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 415.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 13% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...

https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS

-Wednesday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.1% to 3819.

-VIX fell about 1% to 26.95.

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 3.096%.

 

PULLBACK DATA:

-Drop from Top: 20.4% as of today. 23.6% max.

-Days from Top to Bottom: 122-days.

The S&P 500 is 13.1% BELOW its 200-dMA & 5.3% BELOW its 50-dMA.

*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, we hope to be able to call the bottom when we see it.

 

MY TRADING POSITIONS:

None

 

TODAY’S COMMENT:

Not much change today.

 

Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators remained +10 for the third day in a row (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +10 to +25. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.

 

LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: SENTIMENT, VOLUME, VIX & PRICE are bullish. That’s a strong bullish signal, but it just indicates conditions are currently good. It doesn’t mean we have seen a final bottom.

 

I’m a Bear, longer-term, but the indicators are still suggesting this bounce can go higher. Seems like the markets are waiting for direction.

 

BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:

TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

My chart methodology is still funky. Top four ETF ranking follows:

(1)  XLE (2) XLU (3) XLV (4) DVY

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

Here’s the revised DOW 30 and its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY.

 

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. 

 

My stock-allocation in the portfolio is now roughly 30% invested in stocks.

 

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF.

 

You may wish to have a higher or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.

 

As a general rule, some suggest that the % of portfolio invested in the stock market should be one’s age subtracted from 100.  So, a 30-year-old person would have 70% of the portfolio in stocks, stock mutual funds and/or stock ETFs.  That’s ok, but for older investors, I usually don’t recommend keeping less than 50% invested in stocks (as a fully invested position) since most people need some growth in the portfolio to keep up with inflation.

Best DOW Stocks ... Best ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ... Consumer Confidence ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

 

“Faced with a combination of record speculative extremes and deteriorating speculative conditions, investors may want to remember that the best time to panic is before everyone else does.” – John Hussman, Phd.

 

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)

“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in June, following a decline in May. The Index fell to 98.7 (1985=100)—down 4.5 points from 103.2 in May—and now stands at its lowest level since February 2021 (Index, 95.2)...Consumers’ grimmer outlook was driven by increasing concerns about inflation, in particular rising gas and food prices. Expectations have now fallen well below a reading of 80, suggesting weaker growth in the second half of 2022 as well as growing risk of recession by yearend.” Press release at...

https://www.conference-board.org/press/pressdetail.cfm?pressid=16634

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS

-Tuesday the S&P 500 slipped about 2% to 3822.

-VIX rose about 5% to 28.36.

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.172%.

 

PULLBACK DATA:

-Drop from Top: 20.3% as of today. 23.6% max. (Avg.= 13% for non-crash pullbacks)

-Days from Top to Bottom: 121-days. (Avg= 30 days top to bottom for corrections <10%; 60 days top to bottom for larger, non-crash pullbacks)

The S&P 500 is 13.2% BELOW its 200-dMA & 5.5% BELOW its 50-dMA.

*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, we hope to be able to call the bottom when we see it.

 

MY TRADING POSITIONS:

None. I am vacationing and I just don’t have time to keep track of trading positions.

 

TODAY’S COMMENT:

I heard the NY Fed President, John Williams, speak on CNBC Tuesday. He said that the next hikes would be 50-75 basis points depending on the data, but during the interview he repeated that the Fed needed to rapidly raise rates and said, “we’re far from where we need to be.” My guess is that his commentary spooked markets today and we have the really ugly daily chart as a result. The Consumer Confidence report didn’t help either and Lynn Franco’s comment (Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board) referenced growing recession risk by year end – not exactly good news for the markets.

 

Short term swings are nearly impossible to call (it’s mostly guesswork), but the Fed & Confidence data may have killed the rally even though technical signs say otherwise.

 

Here are a couple of big bear signs: XLU is outpacing the S&P 500; XLI is underperforming the S&P 500; late-day action (the Smart Money) suggests selling; the 3-month chart did not break its upper trend line (although the chart is far from textbook). These are worrisome signs that the rally may have failed already. Still, short-term indicators are not showing much change

 

Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators remained +10 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -5 to +10. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.

 

LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: SENTIMENT, VOLUME, VIX & PRICE are bullish. That’s a strong bullish signal and the short-term Market Internals Indicator is bullish too.

 

I’m a Bear, longer-term, but the indicators are still suggesting this bounce can go higher. We may find out soon if the news has derailed the bounce.

 

BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:

TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

All of the ETFs I track are below their 120-dMAs, so my chart methodology is not valid. Top three ETF ranking follows:

(1)  XLV (2) XLE (3) XLU (4) IBB

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

Here’s the revised DOW 30 and its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY.

 

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. 

 

 

My stock-allocation in the portfolio is now roughly 30% invested in stocks.

 

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF.

 

You may wish to have a higher or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.

 

As a general rule, some suggest that the % of portfolio invested in the stock market should be one’s age subtracted from 100.  So, a 30-year-old person would have 70% of the portfolio in stocks, stock mutual funds and/or stock ETFs.  That’s ok, but for older investors, I usually don’t recommend keeping less than 50% invested in stocks (as a fully invested position) since most people need some growth in the portfolio to keep up with inflation.

Best DOW Stocks ... Best ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ... Durable Orders ... Pending Home Sales

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

 

“Faced with a combination of record speculative extremes and deteriorating speculative conditions, investors may want to remember that the best time to panic is before everyone else does.” – John Hussman, Phd.

 

DURABLE ORDERS (Bloomberg)

“Orders placed with US factories for durable goods rose more than expected in May, suggesting business investment so far remains firm even in the face of rising interest rates and mounting concerns about the economy. Bookings for durable goods -- items meant to last at least three years -- increased 0.7% in May...” Story at...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-27/us-durable-goods-orders-exceed-forecast-in-broad-advance

 

PENDING HOME SALES (FoxBusiness)

“Pending home sales unexpectedly broke a six-month streak of declines in May, climbing 0.7% to a reading of 99.9, according to the National Association of Realtors.” Story at...

https://www.foxbusiness.com/real-estate/pending-home-sales-unexpectedly-break-six-month-losing-streak-may

 

ARE STOCKS FORMING A BOTTOM (Ciovacco Capital)

Graphic from Ciovacco Presentation at...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6F9AN2cj7k

I think the bottom line for the presentation was that a downside of another 6-9% is still possible, however, markets are trying to form a bottom. That process may take several months. If we have a recession, all bets are off and significant further downside is possible.

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS

-Monday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.3% to 3900.

-VIX fell about 1% to 26.95.

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.210%.

 

PULLBACK DATA:

-Drop from Top: 18.7% as of today. 23.6% max. (Avg.= 13% for non-crash pullbacks)

-Days from Top to Bottom: 120-days. (Avg= 30 days top to bottom for corrections <10%; 60 days top to bottom for larger, non-crash pullbacks)

The S&P 500 is 11.4% BELOW its 200-dMA & 3.8% BELOW its 50-dMA.

*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, we hope to be able to call the bottom when we see it.

 

MY TRADING POSITIONS:

None

 

TODAY’S COMMENT:

After the big move higher Friday, it’s not surprising to see some profit taking Monday. Internals were generally positive and more bullish signs are popping up.  This all suggests that, absent more bad news, this market can keep going higher; but it still looks like a counter-trend rally and not a permanent change in direction.

 

Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from +9 to +10 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -17 to -5. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.

 

LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator switched to BUY: SENTIMENT, VOLUME & PRICE are bullish; VIX is neutral. This may indicate that the rally may be larger than I expected.

 

I’m a Bear, longer-term, but this bounce can go higher. 4% higher seems easy; it is not likely that it will reach the 200d-MA (11% higher), but it’s not out of the question. Still, this bear market isn’t over yet.

 

BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:

TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

All of the ETFs I track are below their 120-dMAs, so my chart methodology is not valid. Top three ETF ranking follows:

(1)  XLV (2) XLU  (3) IBB (4) XLE

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

Here’s the revised DOW 30 and its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY.

 

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. 

 

 

My stock-allocation in the portfolio is now roughly 30% invested in stocks.

 

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF.

 

You may wish to have a higher or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.

 

As a general rule, some suggest that the % of portfolio invested in the stock market should be one’s age subtracted from 100.  So, a 30-year-old person would have 70% of the portfolio in stocks, stock mutual funds and/or stock ETFs.  That’s ok, but for older investors, I usually don’t recommend keeping less than 50% invested in stocks (as a fully invested position) since most people need some growth in the portfolio to keep up with inflation.

Best DOW Stocks ... Best ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ... New Home Sales ... Consumer Confidence

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

 

“Faced with a combination of record speculative extremes and deteriorating speculative conditions, investors may want to remember that the best time to panic is before everyone else does.” – John Hussman, Phd.

 

NEW HOME SALES / CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Reuters)

“Sales of new U.S. single-family homes unexpectedly rose in May, but the rebound is likely to be temporary as home prices continue to increase and the average contract rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage approaches 6%, reducing affordability... There was, however, some encouraging news on the inflation front. While a survey from the University of Michigan on Friday confirmed consumer confidence plunged to a record low in June, consumers' inflation expectations moderated a bit.

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-new-home-sales-unexpectedly-rise-may-2022-06-24/

Maybe that slight bit of inflation good news set off today’s  rally?

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS

-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 3.1% to 3912.

-VIX fell about 6% to 27.23.

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.136%.

 

PULLBACK DATA:

-Drop from Top: 18.4% as of today. 23.6% max. (Avg.= 13% for non-crash pullbacks)

-Days from Top to Bottom: 119-days. (Avg= 30 days top to bottom for corrections <10%; 60 days top to bottom for larger, non-crash pullbacks)

The S&P 500 is 11.2% BELOW its 200-dMA & 3.8% BELOW its 50-dMA.

*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, we hope to be able to call the bottom when we see it.

 

MY TRADING POSITIONS:

None

 

TODAY’S COMMENT:

Blast off! To infinity and beyond!! Volume was extremely high today, nearly 70% higher than the average volume for the month and about 2% higher than the maximum volume during this entire 6-month downturn. The previous record high volume was 18 March and it was also on an up-day. We have not seen a super high volume down-day and that’s one reason we can’t call the correction over.  There hasn’t been a big panic, flush-out day.

 

Today, there was high unchanged-volume. Many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Recent history shows this indicator has indicated a reversal of some kind, either now, or near future. My problem is that it is frequently a false signal. At this point if the indicator is sending a decent signal, the direction of reversal would be down. It could be sending a false signal. Since all volume was high, the unchanged component may be high too.

 

On Fridays, I summarize a number of indicators to get a weekly feel for trend. Overall, the end-of-week summary improved, but there are still a lot of bear-signs (9-bear and 14-bull). These indicators tend to be both long-term and short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report on daily. Details follow:

 

BULL SIGNS

-There was a Follow-thru day today and that cancels prior Distribution Days.

-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500 are Bullish.

-Sentiment.

-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 24 June.

-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bullish crossover 24 June.

-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is rising.

-Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is headed up.

-My Money Trend indicator is rising.

-The short-term, 5-day & 10-day, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Indeces are Bullish.

-McClellan Oscillator is positive.

-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days) was 48; the chart trend is sharply up. 

-The Smart Money (late-day action) reversed higher.

-The size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.

-VIX is falling sharply.

 

NEUTRAL

-Short-term new-high/new-low data.

-Long-term new-high/new-low data.

-Bollinger Bands.

-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).  

-The S&P 500 is 11.2% below its 200-dMA. (Bull indicator is 12% below the 200-day.)

-There have been 10 up-days over the last 20 sessions – neutral.

-There have been 5 up-days over the last 10 sessions – neutral.

-RSI.

-The longer-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is Neutral, but close to Bullish.

-There was a Breadth Thrust 2 June. That’s a rare bullish sign. - Expired

-The 52-week, New-high/new-low ratio improved by 0.2 standard deviations on 24 June. – too small to send a signal..

-13 May was a Bullish Outside Reversal Day - expired.

-There was a Hindenburg Omen signal 8 April – it was canceled when the McClellan Oscillator turned bullish.

-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator.

-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. – It proved correct, but is now Expired

-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is flat. This is one of my favorite trend indicators.

-Utilities (XLU) are outperforming the S&P 500, but divergence is small so let’s call this neutral.

 

BEAR SIGNS

-The 10-dMA % of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.

-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50.

-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%

-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has been below 50% for more than 100 consecutive days. (3 days in a row is my “correction-now” signal)

-There have been 5 Statistically-Significant day (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days. The last one was up, so this is bearish.

-There were three 90% Down-volume days 9-16June. These remain until cancelled by high up-volume days.

-Cyclical Industrials (XLI-ETF) are under-performing the S&P 500.

-The 5-10-20 Timer System is SELL; the 5-dEMA and 10-dEMA are both BELOW the 20-dEMA.

-43% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days.

 

On Friday, 21 February, 2 days after the top before the Coronavirus pullback, there were 10 bear-signs and 1 bull-sign. Now there are 9 bear-signs and 14-Bull. Last week, there were 17 bear-signs and 8 bull-signs.

 

Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from -4 to +9 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -22 to -17. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.

 

LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator switched to BUY: SENTIMENT, PRICE & VIX are bullish; VOLUME is neutral. This may indicate that the rally may be larger than I expected.

 

I wrote previously that I would short the S&P 500 if there was another big (statistically significant) up-day. They often signal a reversal, but there were so many bull signs today, I suspect the markets can go higher. The upper trend line on the 3-month chart is about at the 50-dMA. The S&P 500 should be able to get there.  That would be approximately another 4% gain from today’s close.

 

I’m a Bear, longer-term. This bear-market isn’t over yet.

 

BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:

TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

All of the ETFs I track are below their 120-dMAs, so my chart methodology is not valid. Top three ETF ranking follows:

(1)  XLV  (2) XLU  (3) IBB

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

Here’s the revised DOW 30 and its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD.

 

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. 

 

 

My stock-allocation in the portfolio is now roughly 30% invested in stocks.

 

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF.

 

You may wish to have a higher or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.

 

As a general rule, some suggest that the % of portfolio invested in the stock market should be one’s age subtracted from 100.  So, a 30-year-old person would have 70% of the portfolio in stocks, stock mutual funds and/or stock ETFs.  That’s ok, but for older investors, I usually don’t recommend keeping less than 50% invested in stocks (as a fully invested position) since most people need some growth in the portfolio to keep up with inflation.