“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Faced with a combination of record speculative extremes
and deteriorating speculative conditions, investors may want to remember that
the best time to panic is before everyone else does.” – John Hussman, Phd.
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
Markets will be closed Monday for Juneteenth. “Juneteenth
(short for “June Nineteenth”) marks the day when federal troops arrived
in Galveston, Texas in 1865 to take
control of the state and ensure that all enslaved people be freed. The troops’
arrival came a full two and a half years after the [Lincoln’s]
signing of the Emancipation
Proclamation.” – History.com
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION / CAPACITY UTILIZATION (Fxstreet)
“Industrial Production in the US expanded by 0.2% on a
monthly basis in May, the data published by the US Federal Reserve revealed on
Friday. This print followed April's expansion of 1.4% and came in weaker
than the market expectation of 0.4%...Capacity utilization edged up to 79.0%,
0.5 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2021) average."” Story at...
2020 VOTER FRAUD (Heritage Foundation Database)
Heritage Foundation reports that there were 17
convictions for voter fraud in 2020. Convictions included the following
offenses: False Registrations; Buying Votes; Ballot Petition Fraud; Illegal
"Assistance" At The Polls; Fraudulent Use Of Absentee Ballots; and Ineligible
Voting. A few examples follow:
-“Randy Allen Jumper voted twice
in the 2016 general election. He voted by absentee ballot in Arizona and again
by absentee ballot in Nevada. He pleaded guilty to attempted illegal voting, a
class 6 felony. He was sentenced to two years probation, fined $5,000, and is
barred from voting in Arizona.”
- “April Atilano, of Monterey
County, pleaded guilty to 6 counts of felony voter fraud for falsifying voter
registration forms. Atilano falsified a number of voter registration cards by
changing party affiliation and forging signatures. The forms were submitted to
the Madera County Registrar of Voters in July 2019. Atilano was sentenced to
one year in prison and three years probation.”
-“Delores "Dee" Handy,
of Crowley was found guilty of failing to mark a ballot as instructed when
assisting an elderly voter, a misdemeanor. She was sentenced to 11 months in
jail which was suspended, two years of probation, and fined $800.”
Donald trump won Georgia by 211,000 votes in 2016; Trump
lost Georgia by 12,000 in 2020. So, by
Trump’s claims, the Democrats would have needed to falsify at least 233,000
votes to flip the election. Since paper ballots matched the voting machines,
the machines weren’t to blame. Absentee ballots? The Dems would have needed to
forge close to a quarter-million signatures and get them past the verifiers
certifying the election - Absurd. Oh, by the way, if any of the 233,000 real
people whose identities were stolen voted, they would be identified for
duplicate voting. Could the Dems register a quarter million fake names and use
them to vote? Not likely. As noted above, Ms. Alitano got caught submitting 6
false registrations.
It is simply impossible to steal an election on the scale
that Trump claims.
For more, see the Heritage Foundation website and search the
database at...
https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud
On the most commonsense level, Trump was behind in the
polls before the 2020 election. Why
would anyone be surprised he lost? Further, it the Dems were so good at faking
votes, why didn’t they give themselves a clear majority in the Senate so they
could do whatever they wanted? (They didn’t get a majority in the Senate until runoff
elections in Georgia were held after the Presidential election; the Democrats
won thanks to Trump’s complaining about a stolen election.)
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 3675.
-VIX dipped about 5% to 31.13.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was 3.236%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 23.4% as of today. 23.6% max. (Avg.= 13%
for non-crash pullbacks)
-Days from Top to Bottom: 115-days. (Avg= 30 days top to
bottom for corrections <10%; 60 days top to bottom for larger, non-crash
pullbacks)
The S&P 500 is 16.9% BELOW its 200-dMA & 10.7%
BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, we hope to be able to call the bottom when we see
it.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SH
TODAY’S COMMENT:
On Fridays, I summarize a number of indicators to get a
weekly feel for trend. Overall, the end-of-week summary improved but remained
bearish (17-bear and 8-bull). These indicators tend to be both long-term and short-term,
so they are different than the 20 that I report on daily. Details follow:
BULL SIGNS
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the
S&P 500 are Bullish.
-Sentiment.
-The S&P 500 is 12.2% below its 200-dMA. (Bull
indicator is 12% below the 200-day.)
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is rising.
-RSI.
-The short-term, 5-day, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is
Bullish.
-Cyclical Industrials (XLI-ETF) are out-performing the
S&P 500.
NEUTRAL
-Bollinger Bands. (This indictor was oversold yesterday.)
-There have been 4 Statistically-Significant day (big
moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-There have been 10 up-days over the last 20 sessions –
neutral.
-There have been 4 up-days over the last 10 sessions –
neutral.
-The size of up-moves has been smaller than the size of
down-moves over the last month, but not enough to send a signal.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days)
was 46; the chart trend is flat to slightly up.
-The longer-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is Neutral,
but close to Bullish.
-There were back-to-back-to-back 80% up-volume days 25-27
May. These were cancelled by a 90% Down-volume day 9 June.
-There was a Breadth Thrust 2 June. That’s a rare bullish
sign. - Expired
-The 52-week, New-high/new-low ratio improved by 3.5
standard deviations on 13 May. - Expired.
-13 May was a Bullish Outside Reversal Day - expired.
-There was a Hindenburg Omen signal 8 April – it was
canceled when the McClellan Oscillator turned bullish.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week
highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January. (There is no
bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too
narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. – It proved correct, but is
now Expired
-Utilities (XLU) are outperforming the S&P 500, but
divergence is getting smaller so let’s call this neutral.
-The Smart Money (late-day action). Let’s call it neutral
– trend is not well defined.
BEAR SIGNS
-There have been 7 Distribution Days since the last
Follow-Thru Day on 4 May.
-The 10-dMA % of issues advancing on the NYSE
(Breadth) is belwo 50%.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE
(Breadth) is below 50.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on
the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE
(Breadth) has been below 50% for more than 100 consecutive days. (3 days in a
row is my “correction-now” signal)
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bearish crossover 13
June.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE
(breadth) made a bearish crossover 9 June.
-Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is headed
down
-My Money Trend indicator is falling.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data is down.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data is down.
-McClellan Oscillator is negative.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is falling. This is one
of my favorite trend indicators.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is SELL; the 5-dEMA and 10-dEMA
are both BELOW the 20-dEMA.
-VIX is rising sharply.
-There have been three 90% down-volume days 10, 13, 16
June.
-36% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the
last 10-days.
On Friday, 21 February, 2 days after the top before the
Coronavirus pullback, there were 10 bear-signs and 1 bull-sign. Now there
are 17 bear-signs and 8-Bull. Last week, there were 88 bear-signs and 4
bull-signs.
Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators remained -1 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum
that smooths the daily fluctuations dropped from +38 to +25. (The trend
direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These
numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in
late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce
around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long
Term NTSM indicator was SELL: SENTIMENT is bullish; PRICE is neutral; VOLUME
and VIX are bearish. 47 days have been up days in the last 100 days and that
neutral level allowed the indicator to slip to sell.
I’m a Bear, but I expect a bounce of some kind soon. (10-Days long & +/- 7% gain?)
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM
RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
My stock-allocation in the
portfolio is now roughly 30% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
As a general rule, some
suggest that the % of portfolio invested in the stock market should be one’s
age subtracted from 100. So, a
30-year-old person would have 70% of the portfolio in stocks, stock mutual
funds and/or stock ETFs. That’s ok, but
for older investors, I usually don’t recommend keeping less than 50% invested
in stocks (as a fully invested position) since most people need some growth in
the portfolio to keep up with inflation.
