“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Faced with a combination of record speculative extremes
and deteriorating speculative conditions, investors may want to remember that
the best time to panic is before everyone else does.” – John Hussman, Phd.
GDP (YahooFinance)
“The U.S. economy shrank an annualized 1.6% in the first
quarter, reflecting a deeper contraction than the most recent estimate of 1.5%,
revised data released Wednesday showed.” Story at...
EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA for week ending 24 June)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.8 million barrels from the
previous week. At 415.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
13% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.1% to 3819.
-VIX fell about 1% to 26.95.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 3.096%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 20.4% as of today. 23.6% max.
-Days from Top to Bottom: 122-days.
The S&P 500 is 13.1% BELOW its 200-dMA & 5.3%
BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, we hope to be able to call the bottom when we see
it.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
None
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Not much change today.
Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators remained +10 for
the third day in a row (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish);
the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +10
to +25. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the
10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on
data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they
tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long
Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: SENTIMENT, VOLUME, VIX & PRICE are
bullish. That’s a strong bullish signal, but it just indicates conditions are
currently good. It doesn’t mean we have seen a final bottom.
I’m a Bear, longer-term, but the indicators are still
suggesting this bounce can go higher. Seems like the markets are waiting for direction.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
My chart methodology is still funky. Top four ETF
ranking follows:
(1) XLE (2)
XLU (3) XLV (4) DVY
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM
RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
My stock-allocation in the
portfolio is now roughly 30% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
As a general rule, some
suggest that the % of portfolio invested in the stock market should be one’s
age subtracted from 100. So, a
30-year-old person would have 70% of the portfolio in stocks, stock mutual
funds and/or stock ETFs. That’s ok, but
for older investors, I usually don’t recommend keeping less than 50% invested
in stocks (as a fully invested position) since most people need some growth in
the portfolio to keep up with inflation.
