“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
GDP (Yahoo Finance)
“U.S. economic activity expanded faster than expected in the final three months of 2022, marking a resilient end to a year defined by stubborn inflation, rising interest rates, and battered financial markets. The Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance estimate of Q4 U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) showed the economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.9%... Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) — or consumer spending — which comprises roughly two-thirds of domestic activity rose at 2.1% clip...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-economy-gross-domestic-product-q4-gdp-growth-recession-131755699.html
DURABLE ORDERS (Nasdaq.com / RTT News)
“A report released by the Commerce Department on Thursday showed new orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods soared by much more than expected in the month of December. The Commerce Department said durable goods orders spiked by 5.6 percent in December after tumbling by 1.7 percent in November.” Story at...
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/u.s.-durable-goods-orders-surge-much-more-than-expected-in-december
JOBLESS CLAIMS (The Hill)
“New first-time applications for jobless benefits fell last week, even as major technology and media companies announced thousands of layoffs, according to data released Thursday by the Labor Department. In the week ending Jan. 21, initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled 186,000 after seasonal adjustments, down 6,000 from the previous week’s total of 190,000.” Story at...
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3831439-jobless-claims-fall-despite-mounting-layoffs-in-tech-sector/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 1.1% to 4060.
-VIX slipped about 2% to 18.73.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.515%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 15.3% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 267-days.
The S&P 500 is 2.5% ABOVE its 200-dMA & 3% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD – (2xNas 100) The XLK bottomed 12 October, about the same time as when the S&P 500 retested its low. QLD seems like a decent bet even though the CNBC crowd doesn’t like Tech.
XLK – Technology ETF.
SSO – 2x S&P 500.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. Low PE; good Dividend; decent momentum.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4.2%. (Trailing
1-year yield is 1.3%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll
sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Not much new today. There’s some trend in the indicators shifting away from the strong bullish mode we’re in, but that doesn’t mean the rally is over. They could just as easily turn more bullish. We’ll just have to be patient.
Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators slipped from +4 to
+3 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed
sum that smooths the daily fluctuations decreased from +81 to 71. (The trend
direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These
numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in
late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around
a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator slipped
to HOLD: PRICE is positive. VOLUME, VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. My NTSM buy-signal was 27 September, based on improved internals at the retest low, about 2% before the bottom.)
Bottom line: I’m a BULL, but I am watching indicators.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM
RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
“U.S. economic activity expanded faster than expected in the final three months of 2022, marking a resilient end to a year defined by stubborn inflation, rising interest rates, and battered financial markets. The Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance estimate of Q4 U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) showed the economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.9%... Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) — or consumer spending — which comprises roughly two-thirds of domestic activity rose at 2.1% clip...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-economy-gross-domestic-product-q4-gdp-growth-recession-131755699.html
“A report released by the Commerce Department on Thursday showed new orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods soared by much more than expected in the month of December. The Commerce Department said durable goods orders spiked by 5.6 percent in December after tumbling by 1.7 percent in November.” Story at...
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/u.s.-durable-goods-orders-surge-much-more-than-expected-in-december
“New first-time applications for jobless benefits fell last week, even as major technology and media companies announced thousands of layoffs, according to data released Thursday by the Labor Department. In the week ending Jan. 21, initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled 186,000 after seasonal adjustments, down 6,000 from the previous week’s total of 190,000.” Story at...
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3831439-jobless-claims-fall-despite-mounting-layoffs-in-tech-sector/
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 1.1% to 4060.
-VIX slipped about 2% to 18.73.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.515%.
-Drop from Top: 15.3% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 267-days.
The S&P 500 is 2.5% ABOVE its 200-dMA & 3% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
QLD – (2xNas 100) The XLK bottomed 12 October, about the same time as when the S&P 500 retested its low. QLD seems like a decent bet even though the CNBC crowd doesn’t like Tech.
SSO – 2x S&P 500.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. Low PE; good Dividend; decent momentum.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
Not much new today. There’s some trend in the indicators shifting away from the strong bullish mode we’re in, but that doesn’t mean the rally is over. They could just as easily turn more bullish. We’ll just have to be patient.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. My NTSM buy-signal was 27 September, based on improved internals at the retest low, about 2% before the bottom.)
Bottom line: I’m a BULL, but I am watching indicators.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
