“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
Political commentary at...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
PCE PRICES / PERSONAL INCOME / SPENDING (CNBC)
“Personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy increased 4.4% from a year ago, down from the 4.7% reading in November and in line with the Dow Jones estimate. That was the slowest annual rate of increase since October 2021... Spending adjusted for inflation declined 0.2% on the month, worse than the 0.1% drop that Wall Street had been anticipating...Personal income increased 0.2% for the month, as expected.” Story at...\
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/27/pce-inflation-december-2022-.html
UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT (Univ of
Michigan)
“Consumer sentiment lifted for the second straight month in January, rising 9% above December but remaining about 3% below a year ago, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers... “Slowing inflation provides some much-needed upward momentum for consumer sentiment. However, global factors like the end of China’s ‘zero-COVID’ policies may put additional upward pressure on inflation,” Hsu said. “Furthermore, the debt ceiling debate looms ahead and could reverse the improvement in sentiment seen over the last several months; past debt ceiling crises in 2011 and 2013 prompted steep declines in consumer confidence.” Story at...
https://news.umich.edu/growing-borrowing-costs-offset-easing-inflation/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 4071.
-VIX slipped about 1% to 18.51.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was little changed at 3.512%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 15.1% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 267-days.
The S&P 500 is 2.8% ABOVE its 200-dMA & 3.2% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD – (2xNas 100) The XLK bottomed 12 October, about the same time as when the S&P 500 retested its low. QLD seems like a decent bet even though the CNBC crowd doesn’t like Tech.
XLK – Technology ETF.
SSO – 2x S&P 500.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. Low PE; good Dividend; decent momentum.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4.2%. (Trailing
1-year yield is 1.3%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll
sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
On Fridays, I summarize a number of indicators to get a weekly feel for trend. The Friday rundown of indicators was a little more bullish than last week (3-bear and 18-bull). (These indicators tend to be both long-term and short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report on daily.)
BULL SIGNS
-There was a Follow-thru day 20 Jan 2023 that cancels prior Distribution Days.
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-There was a Zweig Breadth Thrust 12 January. That’s a rare, very-bullish sign.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bullish crossover 17 Jan. (It was bearish recently for one day.)
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 11 Jan.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-The longer-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is bullish.
-The short-term, 10-dayEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is bullish.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is rising.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days) is headed up.
-On average, the size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-The 5-day EMA is above the 10-day EMA so short-term momentum is bullish.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY; the 5-dEMA and 10-dEMA are both above the 20-dEMA.
-59% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days.
-S&P 500 is outperforming Utilities (XLU-ETF).
NEUTRAL
-There have only been 3 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-Sentiment.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-Bollinger Bands.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days) is flat.
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-There have been 5 up-days over the last 10 sessions – neutral.
-There have been 11 up-days over the last 20 sessions - neutral.
-RSI
-The Smart Money (late-day action) is mixed.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has been above 50%, for 3 days in a row ending the “correction-now” signal.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a panic-buying signal 10 November - expired.
-VIX indicator.
-90% down-volume days - the last one was 5 Dec. - neutral. (There has been a 90% up-volume day since then, but it did not meet all of the tests for a bullish 90% up-volume day.)
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) is outperforming the S&P 500, but it is turning down so let’s call this one neutral.
-The S&P 500 is 2.8% above its 200-dMA. (Bull indicator is 12% below the 200-day, although this is based on “normal” pullbacks.)
-There was a Hindenburg Omen signal 8 April – expired.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January 2022. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. It proved correct, but is now Expired
-The 52-week, New-high/new-low ratio improved by 3.5 standard deviations. More simply, the spread between new-highs and new-lows improved by 716 on 14 October. That’s a solid bottom sign at a retest. – Expired.
-13 & 21 Oct were Bullish Outside Reversal Days with no Bearish Outside Reversal days since then - expired.
BEAR SIGNS
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is falling.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is falling.
-My Money Trend indicator is declining.
On Friday, 21 February, 2 days after the top before the
Coronavirus pullback, there were 10 bear-signs and 1 bull-sign. Now there
are 3 bear-signs and 18-Bull. Last week, there were 5 bear-sign and 17
bull-signs.
The Friday rundown is still giving a solidly bullish
indication.
Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from +3 to
+6 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed
sum that smooths the daily fluctuations decreased from +71 to 64. (The trend
direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These
numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in
late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around
a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained
HOLD: PRICE is positive. VOLUME, VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. My NTSM buy-signal was 27 September, based on improved internals at the retest low, about 2% before the bottom.)
Bottom line: I’m a BULL, but I am watching indicators.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM
RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
“Personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy increased 4.4% from a year ago, down from the 4.7% reading in November and in line with the Dow Jones estimate. That was the slowest annual rate of increase since October 2021... Spending adjusted for inflation declined 0.2% on the month, worse than the 0.1% drop that Wall Street had been anticipating...Personal income increased 0.2% for the month, as expected.” Story at...\
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/27/pce-inflation-december-2022-.html
“Consumer sentiment lifted for the second straight month in January, rising 9% above December but remaining about 3% below a year ago, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers... “Slowing inflation provides some much-needed upward momentum for consumer sentiment. However, global factors like the end of China’s ‘zero-COVID’ policies may put additional upward pressure on inflation,” Hsu said. “Furthermore, the debt ceiling debate looms ahead and could reverse the improvement in sentiment seen over the last several months; past debt ceiling crises in 2011 and 2013 prompted steep declines in consumer confidence.” Story at...
https://news.umich.edu/growing-borrowing-costs-offset-easing-inflation/
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 4071.
-VIX slipped about 1% to 18.51.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was little changed at 3.512%.
-Drop from Top: 15.1% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 267-days.
The S&P 500 is 2.8% ABOVE its 200-dMA & 3.2% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
QLD – (2xNas 100) The XLK bottomed 12 October, about the same time as when the S&P 500 retested its low. QLD seems like a decent bet even though the CNBC crowd doesn’t like Tech.
SSO – 2x S&P 500.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. Low PE; good Dividend; decent momentum.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
On Fridays, I summarize a number of indicators to get a weekly feel for trend. The Friday rundown of indicators was a little more bullish than last week (3-bear and 18-bull). (These indicators tend to be both long-term and short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report on daily.)
-There was a Follow-thru day 20 Jan 2023 that cancels prior Distribution Days.
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-There was a Zweig Breadth Thrust 12 January. That’s a rare, very-bullish sign.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bullish crossover 17 Jan. (It was bearish recently for one day.)
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 11 Jan.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-The longer-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is bullish.
-The short-term, 10-dayEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is bullish.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is rising.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days) is headed up.
-On average, the size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-The 5-day EMA is above the 10-day EMA so short-term momentum is bullish.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY; the 5-dEMA and 10-dEMA are both above the 20-dEMA.
-59% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days.
-S&P 500 is outperforming Utilities (XLU-ETF).
-There have only been 3 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-Sentiment.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-Bollinger Bands.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days) is flat.
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-There have been 5 up-days over the last 10 sessions – neutral.
-There have been 11 up-days over the last 20 sessions - neutral.
-RSI
-The Smart Money (late-day action) is mixed.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has been above 50%, for 3 days in a row ending the “correction-now” signal.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a panic-buying signal 10 November - expired.
-VIX indicator.
-90% down-volume days - the last one was 5 Dec. - neutral. (There has been a 90% up-volume day since then, but it did not meet all of the tests for a bullish 90% up-volume day.)
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) is outperforming the S&P 500, but it is turning down so let’s call this one neutral.
-The S&P 500 is 2.8% above its 200-dMA. (Bull indicator is 12% below the 200-day, although this is based on “normal” pullbacks.)
-There was a Hindenburg Omen signal 8 April – expired.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January 2022. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. It proved correct, but is now Expired
-The 52-week, New-high/new-low ratio improved by 3.5 standard deviations. More simply, the spread between new-highs and new-lows improved by 716 on 14 October. That’s a solid bottom sign at a retest. – Expired.
-13 & 21 Oct were Bullish Outside Reversal Days with no Bearish Outside Reversal days since then - expired.
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is falling.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is falling.
-My Money Trend indicator is declining.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. My NTSM buy-signal was 27 September, based on improved internals at the retest low, about 2% before the bottom.)
Bottom line: I’m a BULL, but I am watching indicators.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
