Housing Starts ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Based on the review of Crossfire Hurricane [the
Trump-Russia investigation] and related intelligence activities,” wrote Durham,
“We conclude that the Department and the FBI failed to uphold their mission of
strict fidelity to the law in connection with certain events and activities
described in this report.” – Durham Report.
HOUSING STARTS / BUILDING PERMITS (YahooFinance)
“Housing starts, which include new construction of both
single and multi-family units, rose 2.2% to
a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.401 million units in April...That was 22.3% below
a year ago... Applications to build decreased to 1.5%...” Story at...
Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/new-home-starts-increase-in-april-in-line-with-expectations-124650219.html
My cmt: This was considered good news since both were
better than expected.
EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 5.0 million barrels from the
previous week. At 467.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are
slightly below the five-year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
IMMINENT OIL SUPPLY SHORTAGE (Oil Price.com)
“The current market pessimism, however, stands in stark
contrast to the tighter market balances we anticipate in the second half of the
year, when demand is expected to eclipse supply by almost 2 mb/d,” the
international agency [International Energy Agency (IEA)] added. Global oil
supply has been lower in recent weeks due to outages in Iraq, Nigeria, and
Brazil, and supply losses are set to increase in May with wildfires shutting in
part of Canada’s production and OPEC+ producers starting to implement the latest
cuts, the IEA noted.” Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com at...
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/IEA-Oil-Bears-Are-Disregarding-An-Imminent-Supply-Shortage.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 1.2% to 4159.
-VIX declined about 6% to 16.87.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.569%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 13.3%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 344-days.
The S&P 500 is 4.6% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 2.3%
ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area
and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to
use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the
Dow stocks and ETFs.
MSFT – Added Microsoft 5/10/2023.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. XLE has been testing its March
lows and recent 4 May low on lower volume so I continue to hold it.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a very small position
for me. KRE tested the May 4 low of 36.08 on much lower volume 11 & 12
May. That’s a bullish sign for KRE and it was up over 7% today, 17 May.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4%. (Trailing
1-year yield is 1.6%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll
sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The S&P 500 is outpacing the Utilities ETF when calculate
the spread on a smoothed basis. This looks bullish; a continuation of the
pattern will just make us more confident that the Index can move higher.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved
from zero to +2 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the
10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -7
to +2. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the
10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on
data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they
tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained BUY: PRICE & VIX are positive; SENTIMENT & VOLUME are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I remain a cautious Bull.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
