PPI Core PPI ... Jobless Claims ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
Friday will be a busy day for me; the blog may be
posted Friday late or possibly Sunday.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
PPI / CORE PPI (CNBC)
“The producer
price index, a measure of prices for final demand goods and
services, increased 0.2%, against the Dow Jones estimate for 0.3% and after
declining 0.4% in March. Excluding food and energy, the core PPI also rose
0.2%, in line with expectations.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/11/wholesale-prices-rose-just-0point2percent-in-april-less-than-estimate-as-inflation-pressures-ease.html
JOBLESS CLAIMS (FOX Business)
“Figures
released Thursday by
the Labor Department show initial claims for the week ended May 6 surged by
22,000 to 264,000, well above the 2019 pre-pandemic average of 218,000 claims.
It marks the steepest level for jobless claims since October 2021.” Story at...
Https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/jobless-claims-rise-sharply-highest-level-october
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 dipped about 0.2% to 4131.
-VIX dipped about 0.1% to 16.93.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.388%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 13.9%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 338-days.
The S&P 500 is 3.9% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 1.9%
ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area
and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to
use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the
Dow stocks and ETFs.
BA – SOLD Boeing 5/10/2023.
MSFT – Added Microsoft 5/10/2023.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It been sagging recently on
lower oil prices.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a very small position
for me. KRE tested the May 4 low of 36.08 on much lower volume today.
Theoretically, that’s a bullish sign for KRE, but this type of volume analysis
is less reliable than when analyzing Indices.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4%. (Trailing
1-year yield is 1.6%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll
sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Not much new today. Indicators are bouncing up and down
with the overall market. Banks continue to underperform. Consumer Discretionary
was one of the few winners today. Utilities are now underperforming the S&P
500. If that trend continues, we may
finally get out of the doldrums.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined
from +6 to -1 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -18 to -12.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained BUY: PRICE & VIX are positive; SENTIMENT & VOLUME are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I remain a cautious Bull.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to NEUTRAL. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
