GDP ... Jobless Claims ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Under the current approach to journalism, it is the New
York Times that receives a Pulitzer for a now debunked Russian collusion story
rather than the New York Post for a now proven Hunter Biden laptop story.” –
Jonathan Turley, Shapiro Chair for Public Interest Law at The George
Washington University Law School, where he teaches torts, criminal procedure, and constitutional law. Commentary
at...
https://jonathanturley.org/
JOBLESS CLAIMS (YahooFinance)
“The number of Americans filing new claims for
unemployment benefits rose moderately last week and the prior week's data was
revised sharply lower, suggesting persistent labor market strength. Initial
claims for state unemployment benefits increased 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted
229,000 for the week ended May 20...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-weekly-jobless-claims-rise-124306917.html
GDP – 2ND EST (The Hill)
“First-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was revised
up on Thursday as the long-predicted recession following the blistering
economic recovery from the pandemic once again failed to hit the U.S. economy. GDP
was corrected up 0.2 percentage points to a gain of 1.3 percent in the first
quarter...” Story at...
https://thehill.com/homenews/4020869-first-quarter-gdp-revised-up-as-corporate-profits-give-way-to-labor-share/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.9% to 4151.
-VIX slipped about .9% to 19.14.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.822%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 13.5%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 350-days.
The S&P 500 is 4.4% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 1.4%
ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area
and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to
use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the
Dow stocks and ETFs.
MSFT – Microsoft.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. XLE tested its March low on 16
May on lower volume so I continue to hold it.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a very small position
for me. KRE tested the May 4 low of 36.08 on much lower volume 11 & 12
May.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4%. (Trailing
1-year yield is 1.6%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll
sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The 200-day moving average of the S&P 50 turned down yesterday
and reversed upward today. I don’t think this is a particularly telling indicator.
I’d be more concerned if the S&P 500 fell below its 200-dMA.
The S&P 500 is still too far ahead of issues trading
on the NYSE, suggesting that the Index may experience some continued weakness.
I would not be surprised to see the index dip to around the 4000 level, but I
doubt that we’ll see much of a drop,
barring unforeseen bad news.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined
from -9 to -11 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the
10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from -2
to -11. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the
10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on
data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they
tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained
HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VIX & VOLUME are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I remain a Bull.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
