Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
Political cartoons/commentary at https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
“Eight of the alleged fake electors who sought to give
Georgia’s electoral votes in the 2020 election to former President Donald Trump
instead of President Joe Biden have agreed to immunity deals with the
prosecution, a new court filing shows.” Story at...
Eight
alleged fake Trump electors in Georgia accept immunity deals in grand jury
probe (msn.com)
The fake elector scheme was the most surprising aspect of
Trump’s attempt to stay in office. Whether these eight have any real evidence
regarding the effort remains to be seen.
DOW 30 PE AND DIVIDEND DATA FROM YAHOO FINANCE
The bottom rows are the current data. Note that the current PE for Microsoft is 33.3.
It was 39 back in April 2021 and 54 back in April of 2017. Prices may not be
cheap, but they have been much higher.
Walgreens Boots had the highest expected return (+18%)
per Yahoo Finance. Average PEs exclude negative earnings and Salesforce, since it is an extreme number.
The bottom line on the PE data is that despite all of the
Pundits claiming PEs are too high, we see that they are now 18% lower than they
were back in April of 2021. The argument
can be made that PEs are expected to fall as earnings fall; that was also true in
2021 due to the Coronavirus. PEs may be high, but I suspect they can go higher.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 4138.
-VIX fell about 1% to 16.98.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.513%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 13.7% as of Friday. 25.4% max (on a
closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 336-days.
The S&P 500 is 4.2% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 2.3%
ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area
and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to
use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the
Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It been sagging recently on
lower oil prices.
BA – Boeing reported 4/26/2023. It had good numbers
and gave good guidance. BA bounced on
the news, but still hasn’t done much recently. I plan to sell it and buy
Microsoft which I expect will outperform Boeing.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a very small position
for me.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4%. (Trailing
1-year yield is 1.6%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll
sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
CPI will be reported Wednesday. Should be exciting.
Friday, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus
Bears) improved from zero to +4 (a positive number is bullish; negatives
are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved
from -48 to -45. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number
for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog
based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so
they tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained
BUY: PRICE & VIX are positive; SENTIMENT & VOLUME are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I am still a cautious Bull. Indicators are
not that bad, in spite of the Hindenburg Omen last week.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
