Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 

This is a screen shot of a FAKE video supposedly of a TV struck stuck during Erin.  The video was very convincing, but it was taken down from Facebook very soon after its posting.  It IS fake. I can only say that the video was so good that I’ll be even more skeptical of news on the web even when it looks real... and BTW, they don’t need more men in Iceland; women don’t outnumber men 2 to 1, so I am staying in the US.
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
FED MINUTES (CNBC)
“Federal Reserve officials worried at their July meeting about the state of the labor market and inflation, though most agreed that it was too soon to lower interest rates, minutes released Wednesday showed. The meeting summary depicted a divergence of opinion among the central bankers, whose vote to hold their key rate steady came despite objections from two Fed governors who argued in favor of cutting.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/20/fed-minutes-august-2025.html
My cmt: There is still a greater than 82% probability of a rate cut in September as implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices. Doesn’t seem right to me.
 
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 6 million barrels from the previous week. At 420.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
POWELL MAY DISSAPOINT WALL STREET (Fortune)
“Wall Street overwhelmingly expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates next month, and Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday will give him a chance to hint at which direction policymakers are headed. But some analysts don’t think a September rate cut is in the bag, and even some who do expect a cut are doubtful that Powell will tease it at Jackson Hole.” Story at...
https://fortune.com/2025/08/17/jerome-powell-jackson-hole-speech-preview-fed-rate-cuts-tariffs-inflation-jobs/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 6396.
-VIX rose about 0.8% to 15.69.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.291% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
None
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +9 to zero (Equal numbers of Bull indicators and Bear indicators) and is now giving a neutral indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread is still rising – a bullish sign.
 

 
The S&P 500 fell hard in the morning, tried to regain the losses, but failed late in the day. It seems to be a sign of the continuing investor confusion. Unchanged volume was again extremely high, a sign of confusion that some believe precedes a change in market direction. I’ve never included this in my indicators since it is wrong much more than right.
 
Overall, indicators continue to drift lower.  Breadth (measured by % of issues advancing on the NYSE) still looks OK, so we may just see a decline to the lower trendline. The 50-dMA is often around the lower trendline.  The S&P 500 is now about 2.3% above the 50-day, and that is a level of support.
 
The real question is Fed Chairman Powell’s upcoming Jackson Hole speech.  That will be Friday and the “cyber-talk” on financial sites seems to suggest that Powell won’t “pre-announce” they will lower the Fed rates at the September meeting. I haven’t seen much evidence that he would signal an upcoming rate-cut. Instead, he is likely to caution about inflation and suggest the Fed will watch the economic data and act appropriately. So what’s new?  
 
The consensus CNBC view seems to think that if Powell doesn’t signal a rate cut in September, we could see further declines in the market. I don’t know; the consensus is usually wrong when it comes to market direction.
 
With indicators in neutral territory, I think the market goes down, but my guess is that the 50-dMA will hold. That’s just a guess; indicators are declining, but still in neutral territory.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral. My concern: Indicators have been trending down.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.