“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“President Donald Trump is removing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook effective immediately, according to a letter he posted to Truth Social on Monday night. In the letter, Trump writes: "Pursuant to my authority under Article II of the Constitution of the United States and the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, as amended, you are hereby removed from your position on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, effective immediately... Cook has not been charged with any crime, and her removal is likely to lead to a court battle between the independent central bank and the executive branch." Story at...
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-removing-federal-reserve-governor-lisa-cook-rcna227138
My cmt: The administration is charging her with mortgage fraud for having multiple primary residences, but that may be a "so what?" I heard a CPA on a local radio talk show. He noted that it is very common for home owners to have multiple “primary residences” on file. If you bought a house as your primary residence and then rented that house while moving to a new “primary residence” one would have more than one primary residence on record.
“The U.S. government's budget deficits are now projected to worsen throughout the next decade when compared with earlier forecasts this year, according to a new report by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB)... Under the updated baseline, CRFB projects that the national debt held by the public will rise from about 100% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 to 120% of GDP by 2035. In dollar terms, that would see the debt held by the public rise from $30 trillion today to $53 trillion in 2035.” Story at...
US debt set to surge to 120% of GDP as federal deficits spiral over next decade under new projections
My cmt: Half-million owed by every taxpayer in 10-years...could be a problem!
“Durable goods orders in the United States were down by 2.8% in July month-to-month to $302.8 billion, the US Census Bureau revealed in its report on Tuesday. The figure exceeded the analysts' expectations by 1%.” Story at...
https://breakingthenews.net/Article/US-durable-goods-down-by-2.8-in-July/64709924
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell by 1.3 points in August to 97.4 (1985=100), down from 98.7 in July (revised up by 1.5 points).... "Consumer confidence dipped slightly in August but remained at a level similar to those of the past three months," said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board... "Consumers' write-in responses showed that references to tariffs increased somewhat and continued to be associated with concerns about higher prices. Meanwhile, references to high prices and inflation, including food and groceries, rose again in August. Consumers' average 12-month inflation expectations picked up after three consecutive months of easing and reached 6.2% in August—up from 5.7% in July but still below the April peak of 7.0%." Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-little-changed-in-august-302538912.html
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 6466.
-VIX declined about 1% to 14.62.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.265% (compared to about this time prior market day).
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +8 to +13 (13 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) and is now giving a Bullish indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread is rising – also a bullish sign.
From Investopedia:
“An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of the previous day’s trading session. Outside reversal is also known as either a bullish engulfing (after a downward price move) or a bearish engulfing pattern (after an upward price move) when observed on candlestick charts... a stock may make a small move lower on the first day, then open even lower than the prior day, but rally sharply higher by the end of the second day. The indication is that bears had control over the market, but then bulls took over and overwhelmed them, signifying a change in the prevailing trend.”
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/outsidereversal.asp
I’m cautiously bullish.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
