Photo of Buxton NC at Cape
Hatteras during the passage of Super Storm Sandy in 2017. This beach faces east
and the tops of the waves are being blown off suggesting a southwest wind,
i.e., the center of circulation has already passed.
HWY 12 north of Rodanthe,
NC on Hatteras Island during Sandy. Sandy did not make landfall on Hatteras
Island, but this demonstrates why Hatteras is being evacuated for hurricane
Erin even though Erin is not expected to make landfall.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
THE NATIONALIZATION OF INTEL (WSJ-Excerpt)
“The Trump Administration is reportedly negotiating to take a 10% stake in Intel Corp., in what would amount to a de facto nationalization of the storied but struggling semiconductor firm. Does President Trump really believe that the same government that has so mismanaged air-traffic control can turn around the chip-making giant?... Intel ran a $18.8 billion loss last year and $3.8 billion during the first six months of this year. Such losses aren’t financially sustainable. The company cut 15,000 jobs last year and plans to slash more than 20,000 this year. The chip-maker has also been spinning off businesses, though the Biden team restricted its ability to sell off its foundries. Enter the Trump Administration, which may further expand the government’s role in managing Intel... This is corporate statism, and rarely does it end well. Political control hamstrings innovation and investment as managers look to their government overlords for approval.” The Editorial Board, WSJ. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-nationalization-of-intel-a59fb635?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAiZHSMFXi0Nyxq6nAcjh1e1HTry7PpnJmnkTnl7csQh5AwIF_uXdLPmknCBDGk%3D&gaa_ts=68a4a903&gaa_sig=ROKBg66djxVVRUKVGVRrHq5mm4cCL8P4Nl1r6xSah7IQmZa0KuwiK-5mYYYKBZ8AMkx38RYlsNYNgXV1FZc8PQ%3D%3D
TRADERS BUYING DISASTER PROTECTION (Gelonghui finance)
“According to Bloomberg, options traders are increasingly concerned about a potential crash in technology stocks over the coming weeks, prompting many to purchase "insurance" against such an event... From the upcoming Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium to NVIDIA's earnings report set for next week, these are all potential catalysts for a market downturn.” Story at...
https://news.futunn.com/en/post/60809668/traders-are-buying-disaster-put-options-to-guard-against-the?level=1&data_ticket=1755620210109305
HOUSING STARTS / PERMITS (Yahoo Finance)
“Groundbreaking for new U.S. single-family homes and permits for future construction ticked higher in July... Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, increased 2.8%...” Story at
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-single-family-starts-permits-124444445.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.6% to 6411.
-VIX rose about 4% to 15.54.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.310% (compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
None
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +11 to +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread is rising too – a bullish sign.
Breadth is bullish, but indicators continue to drift lower. Breadth (measured by % of issues advancing on
the NYSE) still looks OK, so we may just see a decline to the lower trendline. But
as we noted yesterday...
We may not see much movement until investors get a better
handle on the Fed rate cuts. The next Fed meeting is 16-17 September. Perhaps we’ll get some economic news that
will give better clues regarding the rate cut.
For now investors can’t seem to decide even though (as implied by 30-Day
Fed Funds futures prices) the CME Fed Watch tool gives an 85% chance of a 25
basis-point cut (up slightly from yesterday) and a 15% chance of a 50
basis-point cut (down slightly from yesterday).
BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish, although my actions suggest I am neutral to bearish. My concern: Indicators have been trending down.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD.
(My basket of
Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when
it diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“The Trump Administration is reportedly negotiating to take a 10% stake in Intel Corp., in what would amount to a de facto nationalization of the storied but struggling semiconductor firm. Does President Trump really believe that the same government that has so mismanaged air-traffic control can turn around the chip-making giant?... Intel ran a $18.8 billion loss last year and $3.8 billion during the first six months of this year. Such losses aren’t financially sustainable. The company cut 15,000 jobs last year and plans to slash more than 20,000 this year. The chip-maker has also been spinning off businesses, though the Biden team restricted its ability to sell off its foundries. Enter the Trump Administration, which may further expand the government’s role in managing Intel... This is corporate statism, and rarely does it end well. Political control hamstrings innovation and investment as managers look to their government overlords for approval.” The Editorial Board, WSJ. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-nationalization-of-intel-a59fb635?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAiZHSMFXi0Nyxq6nAcjh1e1HTry7PpnJmnkTnl7csQh5AwIF_uXdLPmknCBDGk%3D&gaa_ts=68a4a903&gaa_sig=ROKBg66djxVVRUKVGVRrHq5mm4cCL8P4Nl1r6xSah7IQmZa0KuwiK-5mYYYKBZ8AMkx38RYlsNYNgXV1FZc8PQ%3D%3D
“According to Bloomberg, options traders are increasingly concerned about a potential crash in technology stocks over the coming weeks, prompting many to purchase "insurance" against such an event... From the upcoming Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium to NVIDIA's earnings report set for next week, these are all potential catalysts for a market downturn.” Story at...
https://news.futunn.com/en/post/60809668/traders-are-buying-disaster-put-options-to-guard-against-the?level=1&data_ticket=1755620210109305
“Groundbreaking for new U.S. single-family homes and permits for future construction ticked higher in July... Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, increased 2.8%...” Story at
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-single-family-starts-permits-124444445.html
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.6% to 6411.
-VIX rose about 4% to 15.54.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.310% (compared to about this time prior market day).
None
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +11 to +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread is rising too – a bullish sign.
I’m cautiously bullish, although my actions suggest I am neutral to bearish. My concern: Indicators have been trending down.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
