“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Congress needs to fund the government anew when the current fiscal year ends on Sept. 30. House Republicans hope to vote Friday on a stopgap measure, known as a continuing resolution, that would punt the spending fight and keep the government open through Nov. 21...Democrats have offered a draft CR that would add nearly $1.5 trillion in new spending, says Matthew Dickerson at the Economic Policy Innovation Center... GOP leader John Thune noted on the Senate floor that most Democrats had no problem voting for short-term funding measures more than a dozen times when President Biden and Democrats ran Washington...if Republicans stick together, they’ll have the political high ground in wanting to avoid a government shutdown that accomplishes nothing.” – The Editorial Board, WSJ. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/government-shutdown-congress-chuck-schumer-mike-johnson-continuing-resolution-gop-democrats-ea4fd8af?mod=opinion_lead_pos3
My cmt: $1.5-trillion more in spending? OMG, that’s all we need.
“The squeeze on Disney [owner of ABC] looks to be a case of cancel culture on the right. Mr. Kimmel’s comments Monday associating Charlie Kirk’s killer with the “MAGA gang” were false, callous and stupid. But they weren’t inciting violence, and in a free society they shouldn’t be cause for the government to push someone off the airwaves... We want to be clear that none of this justifies the right’s resort to regulatory censorship. As victims of cancel culture for so long, conservatives more than anyone should oppose it. They will surely be the targets again when the left returns to power.” The Editorial Board, WSJ. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/fcc-disney-jimmy-kimmel-brendan-carr-media-regulation-197bdf0a?mod=opinion_lead_pos1
My cmt: False, inflammatory language inflames the weak minded and sets the stage for more violence. Regrettably, that is ok in our society. Unfortunately, the quick fix, censorship, is not the fix needed.
“Some recent data on trucking shipments in the U.S. serves as bad news for stock prices. The folks at Cass Information Systems keep track of how much stuff is getting shipped by truck in the U.S...This week's chart compares the SP500 to the 12-month rate of change (ROC) for both the Shipments and Expenditures Indices which Cass maintains...Now both indices have their 12ROCs back down below zero, which is where they typically hang out during bear markets for the SP500. This news does not tell us how bad things might get for stocks, nor when any bearish period might precisely begin or end.” – Tom McClellan, McClellan Financial Publications.
Additional Commentary at...
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/cass_freight_data_have_bad_news_for_stocks/
“...there is one other notable index that isn’t taking part in the broader market surge: the Dow Jones Transportation Average. In fact, it’s down more than 1.5% this year—and that could be a worrisome sign...Charles Dow, co-founder and editor of The Wall Street Journal. Basically, the theory states that the Transports need to move higher in tandem with the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average members to confirm that a broader market rally has legs. That isn’t happening now.” Story at...
Beware This ‘Bull Trap’ as Stocks Keep Hitting New Highs
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 6664.
-VIX declined about 2% to 15.45.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.133% (compared to about this time prior market day).
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +7 to +5 (5 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) and has declined to a Neutral indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it remained heading down – a bearish sign.
“Investors should take the time to consider GS for their portfolios due to its solid Zacks Ranks, notable earnings metrics, and impressive Momentum and VGM Style Scores. From...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/momentum-investor-1-stock-could-135002028.html
I am bullish until proven otherwise. We can re-evaluate when the S&P 500 reaches its upper trend line.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
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For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
