Michale Ramirez, Political Commentary at...
https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/michael-ramirez/cartoon-what-political-violence-has-done-to-our-country-3440720/?utm_campaign=widget&utm_medium=topnews&utm_source=opinion_michael-ramirez&utm_term=CARTOON%3A%20What%20political%20violence%20has%20done%20to%20our%20country
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
CHARLIE KIRK EXAMPLE (WSJ)
“...when people stop talking, really bad stuff starts. When marriages stop talking, divorce happens. When civilizations stop talking, civil war ensues. When you stop having a human connection with someone you disagree with, it becomes a lot easier to want to commit violence against that group...What we as a culture have to get back to is being able to have a reasonable disagreement, where violence is not an option.’’ - Charlie Kirk, conservative activist, CEO Turning Point.org.
[Kimberley A. Strassel commentary excerpt, WSJ]
...a nation that hears its leaders darkly warn on a daily basis that their political opponents are hell-bent on imposing tyranny is more liable to justify any action in response. And a media that has made a business model out of amplifying the showboats, mouth-offs and provocateurs—rather than giving attention to serious players—only eggs it all on.
The politicians waiting around for their constituents to ask them to behave better will be waiting a long time; they’ve already created a raging nation... soon, none [of the Politicians] will be safe. If for no other reason than self-preservation, perhaps then they will remember the example that was struck down in Utah on Wednesday. And turn today’s empty words into meaningful ones.” - Kimberley A. Strassel, “Potomac Watch” columnist for the WSJ at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-charlie-kirk-example-9c311c4f?mod=columnists_article_pos3
My cmt: I was curious about Charlie Kirk and why there is so much vitriol surrounding him. I looked at Charlie Kirk’s website. Here’s their mission statement: “Turning Point USA is a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization founded in 2012 by Charlie Kirk. The organization’s mission is to identify, educate, train, and organize students to promote the principles of fiscal responsibility, free markets, and limited government.” Website at...
https://tpusa.com/
I couldn’t find a list of “beliefs” on their website. I watched some videos of Charlie debating students. They are numerous. He was anti-abortion, pro-gun, supportive of traditional family roles. I watched him calmly discuss gun control with a gay student. He did not display the slightest bit of condescension or animosity. Watching the videos, I realized that many of the statements and positions attributed to him have been taken out of context. He is a conservative, traditionalist, but if he’s an extremist, as the left wingers (and his murderer) are saying, I didn’t see the evidence.
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Univ of Michigan)
“Consumer sentiment moved down less than three index points in early September. This month’s easing in economic views was particularly strong among lower and middle income consumers...Consumers continue to note multiple vulnerabilities in the economy, with rising risks to business conditions, labor markets, and inflation. Likewise, consumers perceive risks to their pocketbooks as well; current and expected personal finances both eased about 8% this month. Trade policy remains highly salient to consumers, with about 60% of consumers providing unprompted comments about tariffs during interviews, little changed from last month. Still, sentiment remains above April and May 2025 readings, immediately after the initial announcement of reciprocal tariffs. Year-ahead inflation expectations held steady at 4.8%...”
Press release at...
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 6584.
-VIX rose about 0.3% to 14.76.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.068% (compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +8 to +6 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) and is now giving a mildly Bullish indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it is falling again – a bearish sign.
Here are a few more indicators that are bearish today:
-The Buying-Pressure minus Selling Pressure indicator is not confirming the bullishness. The chart looks the same as yesterday.
-We noted yesterday that the % of 52-week, New-Highs looked good at the new all-time high. In general, though, most of the new-high/new-low indicators are weak.
-The Utility/ S&P 500 spread is bearish since Utilities have been outperforming the S&P 500. When investors are nervous they tend to buy Utilities.
The Bollinger Band indicator is not overbought today and a
Bollinger Band Squeeze is not currently indicated.
On the bullish side, Breadth is ok and the McClellan
Oscillator is bullish, too.
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish. Cautiously, because indicators are bullish, but not convincing.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/michael-ramirez/cartoon-what-political-violence-has-done-to-our-country-3440720/?utm_campaign=widget&utm_medium=topnews&utm_source=opinion_michael-ramirez&utm_term=CARTOON%3A%20What%20political%20violence%20has%20done%20to%20our%20country
“...when people stop talking, really bad stuff starts. When marriages stop talking, divorce happens. When civilizations stop talking, civil war ensues. When you stop having a human connection with someone you disagree with, it becomes a lot easier to want to commit violence against that group...What we as a culture have to get back to is being able to have a reasonable disagreement, where violence is not an option.’’ - Charlie Kirk, conservative activist, CEO Turning Point.org.
...a nation that hears its leaders darkly warn on a daily basis that their political opponents are hell-bent on imposing tyranny is more liable to justify any action in response. And a media that has made a business model out of amplifying the showboats, mouth-offs and provocateurs—rather than giving attention to serious players—only eggs it all on.
The politicians waiting around for their constituents to ask them to behave better will be waiting a long time; they’ve already created a raging nation... soon, none [of the Politicians] will be safe. If for no other reason than self-preservation, perhaps then they will remember the example that was struck down in Utah on Wednesday. And turn today’s empty words into meaningful ones.” - Kimberley A. Strassel, “Potomac Watch” columnist for the WSJ at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-charlie-kirk-example-9c311c4f?mod=columnists_article_pos3
My cmt: I was curious about Charlie Kirk and why there is so much vitriol surrounding him. I looked at Charlie Kirk’s website. Here’s their mission statement: “Turning Point USA is a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization founded in 2012 by Charlie Kirk. The organization’s mission is to identify, educate, train, and organize students to promote the principles of fiscal responsibility, free markets, and limited government.” Website at...
https://tpusa.com/
I couldn’t find a list of “beliefs” on their website. I watched some videos of Charlie debating students. They are numerous. He was anti-abortion, pro-gun, supportive of traditional family roles. I watched him calmly discuss gun control with a gay student. He did not display the slightest bit of condescension or animosity. Watching the videos, I realized that many of the statements and positions attributed to him have been taken out of context. He is a conservative, traditionalist, but if he’s an extremist, as the left wingers (and his murderer) are saying, I didn’t see the evidence.
“Consumer sentiment moved down less than three index points in early September. This month’s easing in economic views was particularly strong among lower and middle income consumers...Consumers continue to note multiple vulnerabilities in the economy, with rising risks to business conditions, labor markets, and inflation. Likewise, consumers perceive risks to their pocketbooks as well; current and expected personal finances both eased about 8% this month. Trade policy remains highly salient to consumers, with about 60% of consumers providing unprompted comments about tariffs during interviews, little changed from last month. Still, sentiment remains above April and May 2025 readings, immediately after the initial announcement of reciprocal tariffs. Year-ahead inflation expectations held steady at 4.8%...”
Press release at...
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 6584.
-VIX rose about 0.3% to 14.76.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.068% (compared to about this time prior market day).
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +8 to +6 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) and is now giving a mildly Bullish indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it is falling again – a bearish sign.
-The Buying-Pressure minus Selling Pressure indicator is not confirming the bullishness. The chart looks the same as yesterday.
-We noted yesterday that the % of 52-week, New-Highs looked good at the new all-time high. In general, though, most of the new-high/new-low indicators are weak.
-The Utility/ S&P 500 spread is bearish since Utilities have been outperforming the S&P 500. When investors are nervous they tend to buy Utilities.
I am cautiously bullish. Cautiously, because indicators are bullish, but not convincing.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.