“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Last month, headlines shouted in unison: Great Barrier Reef suffers worst coral decline on record. Environmental journalists paint a picture of immense devastation driven by climate change... The data show that the reef was mostly stable until 2000, then began declining, and by 2012 it had shrunk to less than half its original cover. But then the reef started growing. It rebounded spectacularly. The scientists stopped publishing their reef-wide average, perhaps because it didn’t further the climate-change narrative... By 2021 coral cover was higher than it had been since measurements began...That brings us to 2025...The reef fluctuates, but today it still logs its fourth-highest coral cover since records began. Instead of being “devastated,” the Great Barrier Reef is still great.” - Bjorn Lomborg, President of the Copenhagen Consensus, visiting fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and author of “Best Things First.” Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/reef-madness-a-baseless-coral-panic-fb81a244
“Robert F. Kennedy Jr., now serving as Donald Trump’s Health and Human Services secretary, is facing renewed scrutiny after a resurfaced video showed him disputing the role of vaccines in eliminating polio. In the clip, Kennedy claimed it was “mythology” to credit vaccines with eradicating the disease, instead suggesting that the banning of the pesticide DDT was the decisive factor." Story at...
RFK Jr. Slapped With Community Note Over Polio Claim
My cmt: The article pointed out that DDT wasn’t banned until 1972. Polio was in serious decline in 1957, just 4 years after the Salk vaccine was introduced. There is no polite way to say it; Robert F. Kennedy is a complete nutcase and needs to be removed. It also points to a massive failure of the Republican Senate – they confirmed the ignorant idiot.
“Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. plans to announce that pregnant women’s use of an over-the-counter pain medication [Tylenol] is potentially linked to autism in a report that will also suggest a medicine derived from folate can be used to treat symptoms of the developmental disorder in some people, people familiar with the matter said... “Failing to treat medical conditions that warrant the use of acetaminophen is, at present, understood to be far more dangerous than theoretical concerns based on inconclusive reviews of conflicting science,” said Dr. Christopher Zahn, chief of clinical practice at the obstetricians association. A 2024 study of more than 2.4 million children in Sweden didn’t find an association between acetaminophen taken during pregnancy and risk of autism or ADHD.” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/health/healthcare/rfk-jr-hhs-to-link-autism-to-tylenol-use-in-pregnancy-and-folate-deficiencies-e3acbb4c?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAhgKD4JaO7ckw1k2dHkrBiWk3W7sVYxutnylZzEHPP6LTaX7EI3OyruSlh5iHM%3D&gaa_ts=68bcf4e1&gaa_sig=waF6JlZm-41FlDe0AIWJWaVomCtCoemXk-wVdq9Tj-1c799BxIy4AjtHjpUPyMDM1hUop4I6GH-_0D8uPvPsPw%3D%3D
My cmt: Did I mention that this guy is a complete nutcase?
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 6495.
-VIX declined about 0.5% to 15.11.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.040% (compared to about this time prior market day).
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +14 to +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) and is now giving a Bullish indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread reversed down – a bearish sign.
Today, there was a Bollinger Squeeze signal that occurs when Bollinger Bands are close together. “A Bollinger Band... is defined by a series of lines that are plotted two standard deviations—both positively and negatively—away from the simple moving average (SMA) of the price of an asset... A Squeeze is triggered when volatility reaches a six-month low and is identified when Bollinger Bands reach a six-month minimum distance apart...” The Bollinger Squeeze predicts a big move (breakout) in the S&P 500, but it doesn’t tell us the direction of such a move. To determine breakout direction, Bollinger suggests looking at other indicators. He suggests using the relative strength index (RSI). Bollinger bands are discussed at Investopedia...
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/accumulationdistribution.asp
RSI is near the middle of its range so it will not tell us what direction a breakout may be. In addition, Bollinger mentions a few other indicators I don’t use. From my indicators we see that the daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remains bullish. This suggests the breakout should be upward, but there isn’t a lot of conviction on the call.
I am cautiously bullish.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
