Retail Sales ... Industrial Production ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
RETAIL SALES (NY POST)
“US retail sales showed surprising strength during the back-to-school season – a sign that Trump’s tariffs haven’t yet cowed shoppers as the Federal Reserve weighs a decision on cutting rates. Excluding cars, retail sales rose 0.7% in August from the previous month...Overall retail sales increased 0.6%.” Story at...
https://nypost.com/2025/09/16/business/retail-sales-jump-in-august-on-surprisingly-strong-back-to-school-season/
 
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (RTT News)
“Industrial production in the U.S. unexpectedly edged slightly higher in the month of August, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve on Tuesday. The Fed said industrial production crept up by 0.1 percent in August...” Story at...\
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/us-industrial-production-unexpectedly-inches-slightly-higher-august
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 6607.
-VIX rose about 4% to 16.36.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.030% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +9 to +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) and is now giving a Bullish indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it remains headed higher – a bullish sign.
 
Tuesday, there was a Bearish outside reversal:
“An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of the previous day’s trading session...Technical analysts and experienced traders prefer to build trading signals using this identification in conjunction with other information such as trend, support and resistance or technical studies.” – Investopedia.
 
There was a Bearish outside reversal about 2 weeks ago. There was no decline after that signal and we wonder whether this one will prove to be more accurate.
 
My guess is that it will not be accurate; most indicators are headed higher.  It looks like investors expect good news from the Fed. A quarter point rate-cut is expected. The one thing that could derail the markets tomorrow is if the Fed chair suggests there won’t be future cuts due to inflation concerns. That doesn’t seem likely, but it could happen.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish until proven otherwise. We can re-evaluate when the S&P 500 reaches its upper trend line.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.