'The People Are Paying Attention': Mike Johnson Resorts To Outright Lies, Claims Americans Are Only Blaming Democrats For The Government Shutdown | Watch
My cmt: I haven’t done any polling so I haven’t a clue who the American people blame for the shutdown. I can only say that regardless of what you think about the issues, the Democrats are the minority party; they were voted out of office and they are blackmailing the country. Their demand is, “Do what we want, or we shut down the Government.” And they are blaming the Republicans??! The press is buying this BS? So much for the “un-biased” press.
“The admiral who leads U.S. military forces in Latin America {commander of U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM)},will step down at the end of this year, two years ahead of schedule, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced on Thursday, in a surprise move amid escalating tensions with Venezuela. A source familiar with the matter told Reuters that there had been tension between Admiral Alvin Holsey and Hegseth over operations in the Caribbean and questions about whether he would be fired in the days leading up to the announcement...” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/surprise-move-head-us-military-latin-america-step-down-2025-10-16/
My cmt: I wondered how the military could follow Trump’s illegal orders to attack suspected drug-boats.
“...Lt. Gen. Joe McGee, the director for Strategy, Plans, and Policy on the Joint Staff, left his position earlier this month, the sources said. They added that McGee had frequently “pushed back” against Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine on issues ranging from Russia and Ukraine to military operations in the Caribbean.” Story at...
Exclusive: Three-star general pushed out amid tensions with Hegseth
My cmt: The GOP voted to support Trump’s attacks on suspected drug cartels in international waters.
“On Oct. 24, Scope downgraded the U.S. local and foreign currency long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings from AA to AA-. (1)
‘Sustained deterioration in public finances and a weakening of governance standards drive the downgrade,’ the agency said in a statement. With ‘persistently elevated’ federal deficits and a rising net interest payment burden, Scope expects the U.S. public debt-to-GDP ratio to reach 140% by 2030 — well above its sovereign peers.” Story at...
US gets hit with another credit downgrade — agency warns of ‘sustained deterioration’ of finances and ‘weakening’ governance. What you need to know
“ADP (ADP), the payrolls processing firm that issues a monthly report on private sector employment, estimated that U.S. private sector employers added 14,250 jobs in the four weeks ended Oct. 11, 2025, the company said on Tuesday.
The four-week moving average, to be issued every Tuesday, helps to provide some data on the labor market as the government shutdown deprives economists and policymakers of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly jobs reports and weekly initial jobless claims.” Story at...
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4509265-us-private-sector-added-143k-jobs-in-four-weeks-ended-oct-11-adp-estimates
My cmt: 14,250 jobs is a very low number and not a sign of a healthy economy.
“Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell drew a stark picture of a labor market that looks fine on the surface—4.3% unemployment, solid consumer spending—but is quietly losing momentum underneath. Once you adjust for statistical overcounting in the payroll data, he said during a press conference Wednesday following the FOMC meeting, ‘job creation is pretty close to zero.”’
Jerome Powell says the AI hiring apocalypse is real: ‘Job creation is pretty close to zero’
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 1% to 6822.
-VIX declined about 0.1% to 16.91.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.097% (compared to about this time prior market day).
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators fell from +5 to Zero (equal numbers of Bull indicators and Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it continued higher, a Bullish sign.
-Wednesday there was a Bearish Outside Reversal. My rule is that this signal remains in place for 10-days or until the high of the Outside reversal Day is exceeded.
-Thursday there was another Hindenburg Omen
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.
Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. 2 in a row, but no cluster yet.
-New-high/new-low data is bearish.
-The McClellan Oscillator is negative, a bearish sign.
-Up-volume is falling.
-The S&P 500 is declined to 11.7% greater than its 200-dMA. The 10-15% zone is where we often see weakness in the markets and 12% is my sell point for this indicator (although we never act on just one indicator.)
-Thursday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time,
Indicators have raised a concern so I’m neutral, in a Holding pattern. If yesterday was a top, we can expect a retreat of less than 10%.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
